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Asia-Pacific stock markets collectively declined due to rising oil prices, with Brent crude briefly reaching $101.59 per barrel. Oman evacuated oil terminal ships for safety reasons, and concerns over the prolonged Middle East situation intensified, affecting the stock markets and hedge fund performance. Analysts point out that if the situation persists, traditional asset pricing logic may change.

Recently, multiple bank equity auctions have repeatedly failed to sell, and the market remains quiet. The liquidity of non-listed bank equities is poor, leading to an imbalance between supply and demand, with some trustees attempting to attract buyers at low prices. Additionally, industry analysts point out that small and medium-sized banks face operational risks and narrowing interest spreads, and the equity auction market is expected to remain weak in the short term.

On March 12, the three major A-share indices generally declined, with the electricity industry experiencing a slight increase. BlackRock announced an investment of $100 million to train technical workers to address future electrical worker shortages, emphasizing the importance of talent in infrastructure development. The government work report proposed the "Compute and Power Collaboration" strategy to promote coordinated development of electricity and computing power. Green energy concept stocks performed strongly, with most shares rising in value throughout the year.

March 12, the chemical fiber sector rose significantly due to the rebound in crude oil prices and the linkage with the futures market. Many companies hit the daily limit, and the market is full of expectations for the industry's recovery. Leading companies are raising prices intensively, technological breakthroughs are driving growth, and it is expected that many chemical fiber stocks will achieve high growth in performance this year.

The rapid development of artificial intelligence has led to a fundamental change in the storage industry, breaking the traditional cyclical logic. The continuous rise in memory prices has become the new normal. Companies are signing long-term contracts to ensure supply meets the growing demand, signaling that the storage industry is entering a new era.

Jefferies economist Simons believes that although oil prices impact inflation in the short term, core inflation will remain stable, and energy-driven inflation is a zero-sum game. He expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates earlier, possibly in April or June, and emphasizes that as long as core inflation remains unaffected, the Fed can ignore overall inflation fluctuations.

The 2026 China Home Appliances and Consumer Electronics Expo will be held from March 12 to 15 in Shanghai, adopting the "One Exhibition, Two Zones" model for the first time, showcasing smart home, AI products, robots, and other advanced technologies. The exhibition will feature numerous artificial intelligence and smart home appliance products, promoting the AI-driven development of the home appliance industry.

Iran announces readiness to face $200 oil prices and implements a "chain reaction" strategy, threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, attacks in Gulf waters have increased, causing international oil prices to rise. Although the IEA released 400 million barrels of oil reserves, it is difficult to ease market concerns over supply disruptions.

Morgan Stanley expects the Federal Reserve to possibly cut interest rates as early as June, but due to rising oil prices caused by the Iran conflict, the rate cut process may be delayed until September or December. Market expectations for rate cuts are weakening, and high oil prices will increase inflationary pressures, potentially posing greater challenges for the economy.

CITIC Securities Research Report states that the export growth rate in the first two months of this year significantly exceeded expectations and the previous value, mainly due to the strong resilience of non-US exports, the "grab export" window created by adjustments to export tax rebate policies, and the low base effect from the same period last year. In terms of product structure, the semiconductor industry chain and automotive industry chain have a greater pull on exports, while labor-intensive products' contribution to overall exports has shifted from negative to positive. The import growth rate in the first two months also greatly exceeded expectations, primarily driven by the recovery of the semiconductor industry boosting related industry chain import demand, while the growth rate of most bulk commodity imports declined. The U.S. Supreme Court ruling that Trump's IEEPA tariffs are illegal alleviates external tariff pressures. Coupled with the resilience of non-US exports, CITIC Securities judges

The International Energy Agency agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves to address supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict, but the market response led to rising oil prices. Analysts believe that the release is insufficient to offset the impact of the halted oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices will continue to be under pressure.

The conflict between the US and Iran has led to disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, causing fertilizer prices to soar and triggering a global food inflation risk. The US Department of Agriculture has called for intervention to prevent a food supply crisis and further inflationary pressures. Analysts expect food prices to rise in the coming months, becoming a political focal point.

The Asia-Pacific stock markets continue to rebound, with South Korea's KOSPI and Japan's Nikkei 225 indices rising significantly. South Korea's Finance Minister stated that measures will be taken to address the impact of the Middle East situation on the economy, and the market stabilization plan may be further expanded. Iran continues military operations, while the U.S. is preparing responses, stating that military actions against Iran will continue until objectives are achieved.

Bank of America warns investors that they may misjudge the Federal Reserve's response to rising oil prices, noting that an energy shock does not necessarily lead to tighter policy and may result in stable or lower interest rates. The market reaction is similar to the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, but currently, the labor market is weak, inflation is moderate, and fiscal support has decreased. The economic focus is on the upcoming CPI data release.

CITIC Securities research reports predict that by 2026, the demand for AI specialty fabrics will accelerate, with the supply-demand gap for Low DK second-generation and Low CTE expanding to 20%, making a doubling in price highly likely. Although specialty fabrics account for only 0.1% of server costs, price increases will have limited impact on downstream industries. The specialty fabric market is expected to enter an active inventory replenishment cycle, with increased price elasticity.

The International Energy Agency has decided to release 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves to address supply risks caused by the escalation of the Middle East situation, but market reactions have been muted, and oil prices have instead risen. Analysts believe that the release measures are short-term emergency responses, and attention should be paid to the security of passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Countries are calling for coordinated actions to ensure stable energy supplies.

CITIC Construction Investment Research report points out that the Middle East situation affects electrolytic aluminum supply, and aluminum prices are expected to break through the 25,000 yuan threshold. Subsequently, the aluminum sector's valuation will recover to a 10x PE. The escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East worsens supply and demand, potentially leading to long-term high aluminum prices.

CITIC Securities research report shows that in February, China's PPI and CPI both exceeded market expectations, mainly driven by rising prices of non-ferrous metals, crude oil, and other commodities. It is expected that the PPI year-on-year turning positive will occur earlier, and the central bank will not tighten policies due to rising oil prices but will need to monitor demand changes. Additionally, geopolitical tensions may lead to a continued increase in crude oil prices.