The Strait of Hormuz situation remains tense! Iran warns the U.S.: Get ready for $200 oil prices

On the day the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced the largest-ever release of strategic oil reserves, Iran issued a warning to the world, saying it is ready for $200 per barrel oil prices. Meanwhile, more commercial ships have been attacked in the Gulf waters.

According to reports from CCTV International and other media outlets, Hatham Anbia Central Command spokesperson in Iran emphasized on Wednesday (March 11) that any ships belonging to the U.S., Israel, and their partners, or carrying oil cargoes, are considered “legitimate targets” for Iran’s armed forces.

The spokesperson stressed that Iran’s previous “tit-for-tat” retaliations are over. From now on, Iran will implement a “chain reaction” strategy, no longer maintaining a one-to-one retaliation pace.

The spokesperson also warned that Iran is fully capable of blockading the Strait of Hormuz. He clearly stated, “We will never allow even a single drop of oil to pass through the Strait of Hormuz under circumstances favorable to the U.S. and its allies.”

He also said that Western attempts to lower global oil and energy prices through external intervention are doomed to fail.

“Prepare for oil prices to rise to $200 per barrel, because oil prices depend on regional security, and that is exactly what you are destroying,” the spokesperson told Washington.

This spokesperson has issued the “$200 per barrel” warning more than once. On March 8, he told the U.S. and Israel that if they can tolerate oil prices exceeding $200 per barrel, “then continue this game.”

Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani also stated on the 9th that if the current conflict further expands to infrastructure levels, its economic impact will last for a long time regionally and globally, and international oil prices could remain in triple digits for some time.

Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz Continue to Escalate

The Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran and the UAE/Oman, is a major passage for Persian Gulf oil exports. About one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil is transported through this narrow waterway, making it one of the most critical “choke points” in the global energy market.

Currently, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to escalate. Recent reports indicate multiple ships have been attacked in the Gulf waters.

According to reports from CCTV News and other media, the Thai Navy announced on the 11th that a Thai cargo ship was attacked while navigating in the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in serious damage to the cargo hold.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) stated on the 11th that a container ship reported being attacked and damaged near the UAE waters, with all crew members safe. The statement said the ship was reportedly hit by a suspected but unidentified projectile approximately 25 nautical miles (about 46 km) northwest of Ras Al Hamra, UAE.

On the 11th, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement saying that a ship flying the Liberian flag, owned by Israel, was hit by Iranian fire and forced to stop after ignoring warnings. Another container ship, which insisted on illegally crossing the strait and ignoring warnings, was attacked by Iranian armed forces hours earlier.

In the early hours of the 12th, port officials in southern Iraq reported that two foreign oil tankers were attacked and set on fire within Iraqi waters. The attack occurred at Umm Qasr port, located about 50 km south of the southern Iraqi city of Basra, on the west coast of Zubair Bay. Preliminary investigations suggest a speedboat loaded with explosives launched the attack on the tankers.

U.S. President Trump stated on March 11 that the U.S. has sunk 28 Iranian mine-laying ships. Earlier reports indicated that U.S. intelligence agencies had begun to detect signs that Iran was preparing to deploy mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

Currently, there are no signs that ships can pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz.

Last week, President Trump announced that if necessary, the U.S. Navy would escort oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. However, so far, no escort operations have been carried out.

Sources familiar with the matter revealed that since the conflict with Iran began, the U.S. Navy has almost daily refused shipping industry requests for military escort through the Strait of Hormuz, citing the high risk of attacks. The Navy’s assessments suggest that Middle Eastern oil exports will continue to be disrupted.

On Wednesday, IEA member countries agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, the largest coordinated release in history. However, oil prices still rose nearly 5% that day, as attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz heightened market concerns over supply disruptions. Analysts believe that the IEA’s record-breaking release of oil reserves is still insufficient to ease these worries.

In Thursday’s Asian trading session, international oil prices continued to rise, with both U.S. and Brent crude up over 7% so far. Brent is just one step away from returning to $100 per barrel.