Monetary Policy

Gate News message: On April 10, U.S. National Economic Council Director of the White House, Hassett, said the Strait of Hormuz could be reopened within two months. In addition, Hassett said the Federal Reserve still has room to cut interest rates, and this outlook will be very solid.

Gate News, April 10, according to Reuters, the market continues to price in expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged throughout 2026.

Gate News message: On April 10, according to CME "FedWatch" data, before the CPI data is released, the probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points in April is 1.6%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 98.4%. Looking ahead to June, the probability of cumulative rate cuts of 25 basis points is 1.5%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 96.8%, and the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points is 1.7%.

Gate News, on April 10, Daly, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said that if the Iran conflict is resolved quickly and oil prices fall, a rate cut is “not impossible.” She also noted that the likelihood of a rate hike is lower than the likelihood of cutting rates or keeping interest rates unchanged.

Banks such as Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) and investment banks like Goldman Sachs predict that gold may rebound in the long term, mainly driven by central bank demand, geopolitical uncertainty, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. ANZ expects the gold price to reach $5,800 by year-end, while Goldman Sachs maintains a $5,400 outlook, saying that central bank gold purchases will be a support factor.

A cryptocurrency exchange became the first CEX to be approved for a Federal Reserve master account, but the account is restricted—access is limited to the Fedwire payment system, and it cannot earn interest. This move has sparked concerns about financial risk and transparency in the U.S., and regulatory experts warn it could affect financial stability. The exchange said it is complying with anti–money laundering requirements.

Analyze market expectations before the release of the U.S. March CPI data, divergences in the inflation structure, and the potential transmission pathways to crypto assets’ risk appetite.

Gate News message. On April 9, according to the latest data from CME’s “FedWatch,” as of April 10, the probability that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady in April is 98.4%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 1.6%.

Gate News message: On April 9, Hasett, the director of the National Economic Council at the White House, said that interest rates should be lower. He expects that the current Federal Reserve chair, Powell, will not remain in his role as a Federal Reserve governor. Earlier news: Trump nominated Wosh to be the chair of the Federal Reserve, and the Senate hearing is expected to be held on April 16.

The Bitcoin options market has turned, with Deribit’s $80,000 call options open interest exceeding $1.6 billion, surpassing its $60,000 put options. The Iran–U.S. ceasefire has fueled rising expectations in the market for a Federal Reserve rate cut, which could be beneficial for Bitcoin. If geopolitical tensions ease, Bitcoin is expected to challenge $100,000, but risks from the Middle East conflict still need to be monitored.

Gate News message, April 9, German commercial bank FX analyst Antje Praefcke said in a report that if Trump again calls for rate cuts, the U.S. dollar could weaken. The report said the oil-price shock triggered by the Iran war should gradually feed through to the price level. Even if the war ends, energy prices may not return to pre-conflict levels. Trump may re-apply pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates in order to boost support ahead of midterm elections.

The Federal Reserve’s March meeting minutes show that “some” officials supported raising interest rates, with hawkish language noticeably upgrading from January’s “several” officials, putting the crypto market under pressure from tighter interest-rate expectations.

Market expectations are that the U.S. February PCE data will show that inflation pressures remain, with PCE rising to 0.4% month over month and 2.8% year over year. Core PCE is expected to be around 3.0% year over year, above the Federal Reserve’s target. The Federal Reserve may continue to hold the 3.50%-3.75% interest-rate range in April, while rate-cut expectations cool.

Bitcoin has recently been trading below $72,000 and faces risks from the failure of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks and the Strait of Hormuz closing again, which has weighed on market sentiment. At the same time, Federal Reserve meeting minutes show that the likelihood of further rate hikes is rising, further affecting the valuation of risk assets. Bitcoin’s key resistance level is $75,000 and its support level is $68,000; the market is currently waiting for a clear direction confirmation signal.

Gate News update: On April 8, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes (FOMC Minutes) showed that several participants further pushed back their assessment of when rate cuts would happen to a more distant future.

The Federal Reserve’s March meeting minutes will be released tonight, as tensions in the conflict between Iran and the U.S. escalate and the direction of interest rates becomes uncertain. This article will explain the key focus of the minutes, the conditions for rate hikes, and the impact on the crypto market.

Gate News message: On April 8, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the March monetary policy meeting at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on April 9. Against the backdrop of intensifying conflict in the Middle East and an increasingly complex market environment, this document will reveal how Federal Reserve officials assess supply shocks and inflationary pressures, as well as the framework they use to judge the balance of risks.

After the U.S. and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement, Bitcoin quickly rebounded to $72,000, indicating how sensitive the market is to macro events. However, derivatives market data shows that this rally was mainly driven by easing hedging sentiment rather than new inflows, and that implied volatility in the options market has fallen, suggesting that near-term risks are being released. The next few days will be critical: a large amount of Bitcoin and Ethereum options are expected to expire, which could influence the direction of the market.

Gate News update, April 8, according to analysis by the finance website Investinglive, after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, gold and silver prices rose. The analysis said that before the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict, gold and silver positions relied mainly on leveraged trading; the negative impact brought by the conflict led to leveraged selling, causing gold and silver prices to fall. After the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, improved market sentiment drove a rebound in gold and silver. In addition, the U.S.-Iran ceasefire also means that major central banks may not need to be overly aggressive in raising interest rates, which is one of the reasons for the rebound in precious metals.

Based on data from the CME FedWatch tool, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at the upcoming meeting is 99.5%, effectively eliminating the risk of further rate hikes. This expectation is driven by multiple macro factors, including slowing inflation and stable economic growth. For high-risk assets such as Bitcoin, keeping rates unchanged helps improve market sentiment, making investors’ expectations of rate cuts the next focus.