Macroeconomics

Gate News message: On April 10, the United States’ initial forecast for the 1-year inflation rate was 4.8% for April, higher than the market expectation of 4.3%, with the prior value at 3.80%. This data is an important component of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and reflects consumers’ expectations for inflation levels over the next year.

Gate News message, April 10, after the CPI data was released, the latest price of WTI U.S. crude oil (U.S. West Texas Intermediate) was $97.57 per barrel, and Brent crude oil (the international benchmark) was latest at $95.46 per barrel. The U.S. Dollar Index DXY (an indicator that measures the strength of the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies) fell 10 points in the short term, with the latest reading at 98.68.

Gate News message: On April 10, the U.S. dollar spot index has fallen cumulatively by about 1.4% this week, marking the largest weekly drop since January. After the CPI data was released, market trading strategies focused on buying the U.S. dollar and oil. The foreign exchange market has now entered a news-headline-driven trading phase, and progress in the Iran-U.S. negotiations amid a fragile ceasefire is becoming the new focal point.

Gate News message: On April 10, the U.S. March unadjusted CPI year-over-year rate recorded 3.3%, with gasoline prices accounting for nearly three-quarters of the CPI increase.

Gate News, according to Tree News, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.3% year over year, below market expectations of 3.4%. The U.S. Core CPI rose 2.6% year over year, also below market expectations of 2.7%.

Banks such as Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) and investment banks like Goldman Sachs predict that gold may rebound in the long term, mainly driven by central bank demand, geopolitical uncertainty, and expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. ANZ expects the gold price to reach $5,800 by year-end, while Goldman Sachs maintains a $5,400 outlook, saying that central bank gold purchases will be a support factor.

Analyze market expectations before the release of the U.S. March CPI data, divergences in the inflation structure, and the potential transmission pathways to crypto assets’ risk appetite.

ING analyst Francesco Pesole said that if U.S. March CPI were to accelerate sharply due to energy prices rising after the Iran war, the dollar could receive support. He noted that whether core inflation shows any second-round effects will be crucial for the Federal Reserve’s policy in the coming months.

Gate News, April 10, international crude oil prices rose briefly. WTI crude oil (West Texas Intermediate, one of the international crude oil benchmark prices) broke above $100 per barrel, up 2.04% during the day; Brent crude oil (North Sea Brent, one of the international crude oil benchmark prices) stood above $95 per barrel, up 1.15% during the day.

Gate News news, on April 10, the Korea KOSPI Index (Korea’s stock market benchmark index) rose 8.96% this week, posting its largest weekly gain since January 2021.

Gate News: Message. On April 10, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the U.S. March CPI (Consumer Price Index) data at 20:30 Beijing time tonight. This release will include: the 3-month unadjusted CPI year-over-year rate, the seasonally adjusted CPI month-over-month rate, the seasonally adjusted core CPI month-over-month rate, and the unadjusted core CPI month-over-month rate. CPI data is a key indicator used to measure the level of inflation and has historically had an important impact on financial markets; it may trigger market volatility at the time of release.

Gate News update, April 10: after the South Korean and Japanese stock markets opened today, they saw gains. Market data shows the Nikkei 225 Index (Japan’s benchmark stock index) rose 1.59%, to 56,783.36 points; the Korean KOSPI Index (South Korea’s benchmark stock index) moved up to 5900 points, up 2.12% during the day.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, VIX (VIX) has dropped by 3% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market activity.

Gate News message: On April 9, the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released a forecast that the U.S. budget deficit in March reached $163 billion.

Gate News update, on April 9, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the IMF has lowered its global economic growth forecast due to the war in Iran.

Gate News update, April 9, the U.S. Q4 actual GDP (gross domestic product) annualized quarter-over-quarter final value was 0.5%, below the market expectation of 0.7%, and the prior value was 0.70%.

Gate News message: On April 9, the U.S. reported that the February Core PCE price index (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, a key inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve) came in at 3% year-over-year, in line with the market’s expected value of 3%.

Gate News message: April 9, the number of people continuing to file for unemployment benefits from the week of March 28 to the U.S. was 1.79M, below the market expectation of 1.84 million. The prior value was revised from 1.84M to 1.83M.

Gate News update: On April 9, the U.S. released that the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending April 4 was 219k, while the market expected 210k.

Gate News message: On April 9, U.S. National Economic Council Director Hassett at the White House said that despite the war, he still expects the U.S. economy to grow by 4% to 5% this year.