Macroeconomics

The US Dollar strengthened, reaching 97.810 on the index, while cryptocurrencies fell by 3.06% in market cap, and gold dropped over 1%. Uncertainty in macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical tensions are influencing these trends.

U.S. Customs announced the suspension of illegal tariffs imposed by Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, but the newly imposed 15% global tariffs will take effect on February 24. The market reaction was lukewarm, and Bitcoin prices declined again. Analysts warn that if the $60,000 support level is broken, further declines may occur. In the short term, a tax refund is unlikely, and the market remains under pressure.

February 24 News, Strategy announced an additional $40 million investment in Bitcoin, despite the current market being somewhat pessimistic about Bitcoin price forecasts. The company currently holds Bitcoin worth $55 billion, with an average cost of approximately $76,020. At Bitcoin's current price of $63,000, unrealized losses amount to nearly $10 billion. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor stated that the company employs a dollar-cost averaging strategy and is not concerned about short-term price fluctuations. Recently, Bitcoin has been affected by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties triggered by developments in artificial intelligence, and policy changes by the Trump administration, leading to consecutive price declines. Matt Howells-Barby, Vice President of Growth at CEX, pointed out that Bitcoin could potentially drop to $50,000 in the short term. Data from DefiLlama shows that investors sold over $1 billion worth of Bitcoin ETFs in February, bringing the total ETF decline since November last year to $7 billion. Data from CF Benchmark indicates that major hedge funds reduced their Bitcoin ETF holdings by 28% between the third and fourth quarters.

The current market is undergoing a structural reshaping driven by de-globalization and artificial intelligence, resulting in slow trading adjustments. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices are struggling to rebound, indicating a lack of market confidence. Capital is flowing into value sectors, technology stocks are underperforming, and crypto assets are being sold off, facing a critical transition ahead.

February 24 News, there is a clear redemption wave in US spot Bitcoin and spot Ethereum ETFs. Data shows that on that day, the net outflow from the spot Bitcoin ETF was approximately $204 million, while the spot Ethereum ETF also saw an outflow of $49.48 million, with a total daily capital outflow of $253 million. This large-scale capital withdrawal occurred after Bitcoin's price briefly fell below the critical $65,000 level, combined with macroeconomic uncertainties caused by expectations of US tariff policies, leading to a significant decline in risk appetite in the crypto market.

February 24 News, Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich recently stated that as AI-driven productivity rapidly advances, the global economy is gradually moving toward an era of "machine-to-machine trading," and Bitcoin could become a primary store of value within this system. This view stems from his response to a forward-looking study by Citrini Research, which outlines the potential for artificial intelligence to replace white-collar jobs on a large scale between 2026 and 2027. Simon Gerovich pointed out that AI agents making financial decisions will not rely on traditional bank accounts, credit card networks, or government-issued currencies, but will instead prioritize more efficient, frictionless digital asset systems. Under the logic of machine-optimized transaction costs, on-chain payments, stablecoin settlements, and Bitcoin as a store of value are more aligned with the needs of an automated economy. Compared to the traditional payment network fee structure of 2% to 3%, low-cost blockchain settlements are more attractive.

Market focus shifts to exchange rates and interest rates. The U.S. Treasury Department has proactively initiated a "currency check" to support the yen, possibly related to uncertainties before the Japanese general election. Meanwhile, divergence in Federal Reserve policy paths and labor market performance will influence rate cut expectations. In the crypto market, BTC prices fluctuate, and attention should be paid to how the macro environment affects liquidity flows.

February 24 News, the Bitcoin price discovery mechanism is undergoing structural changes, with trading focus gradually shifting towards regulated derivative markets such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group). As institutional participation continues to rise, Bitcoin prices are no longer solely driven by on-chain transactions and retail sentiment, but are increasingly influenced by open interest in futures contracts, institutional hedging needs, and macro risk appetite. Currently, Bitcoin is fluctuating around $63,000, indicating that the market remains in an institutional-led range-bound phase. Industry expert Karl Naim pointed out that traditional hedge funds and asset management firms prefer to allocate Bitcoin exposure through familiar compliant derivative instruments rather than relying on offshore markets with higher counterparty risk. The advancement of 24/7 derivative trading mechanisms is weakening the historical advantage of the crypto-native market’s “7×24 hours liquidity,” enabling institutions to continuously hedge risks and adjust positions, thereby compressing arbitrage opportunities between futures and perpetual contracts.

Research organization Citrini Research released the "Global Intelligence Crisis" report, which received over 22 million views on the X platform on February 23, 2026, and is considered one of the partial catalysts for the collective sell-off of software and payment stocks on that day. IBM plummeted 13.1% that day, marking its largest single-day decline in 25 years.

On February 24, news reports indicate that the crypto market came under pressure due to the intensification of the "Artificial Intelligence Panic Trading" and worsening macro risk sentiment. Ethereum, Solana, and Ripple experienced continued declines, with major cryptocurrencies generally recording an 8% to 11% correction over the week. Bitcoin briefly dropped to approximately $62,900, down about 2.1% for the day, with a weekly decline of 7.5%. Its price remains confined within the $60,000 to $70,000 range established after the early February surge, and the market is more inclined to view this as a consolidation zone rather than a clear bottom. Altcoins performed significantly weaker than Bitcoin. Ethereum's price fell to around $1,829, with a weekly decline of about 8%; XRP dropped over 10%, SOL declined more than 11%, and Dogecoin approached a double-digit correction. Mainstream altcoins weakened in tandem, reflecting a decline in market risk appetite, with insufficient buying interest outside of Bitcoin and more cautious capital allocation.

XRP closed down 2.95% on February 23, trading at $1.3522, hitting a three-week low, with the overall crypto market plunging 3.80%. Anthropic's Claude Code has sparked market concerns over AI disrupting tech stock profits; Trump immediately imposed an additional 10%–15% tariff globally following the Supreme Court ruling, adding dual pressure that dragged down the entire crypto asset sector.

Standard Chartered's latest report reveals that stablecoin issuers are rapidly increasing their demand for U.S. short-term government bonds. It is projected that by the end of 2028, this new demand will reach 1 trillion dollars. Including the Federal Reserve's bond purchase program, the total demand for short-term government bonds could surpass 2.2 trillion dollars. This structural shift may force the U.S. Treasury to reallocate its debt portfolio or even suspend 30-year bond auctions for up to three years.

Last week, the US Bitcoin spot ETF experienced a net outflow of approximately $316 million, marking five consecutive weeks of outflows and the longest streak since early 2025; Ethereum ETFs also saw net outflows. In contrast, altcoin ETFs performed better, with Solana and XRP both experiencing small net inflows. Trump’s policies influenced Bitcoin price fluctuations, sparking market concerns over risk assets.

U.S. stocks generally declined due to the potential disruptive risks of artificial intelligence and adjustments in U.S. tariff policies, with the S&P 500 index dropping over 1% and IBM's stock price plummeting. Bitcoin continued to slide, falling to $63,888, as market fear intensified, and overall market capitalization decreased by 3.38%. Investors are focusing on tariff trends and NVIDIA's earnings report.

ChainCatcher News reports that, according to market sources, Bitcoin's treasury companies have experienced three consecutive weeks of selling for the first time in history. This suggests that Bitcoin prices may face increased short-term pressure. If the market does not see new demand, prices could approach the "new bear market lows." Analysts point out that macroeconomic uncertainty and ETF capital outflows further suppress demand. Last week, Trump announced an increase in global tariffs from 10% to 15%, which exacerbates the decline in market risk appetite. However, in the long term, this correction may help clear leveraged positions and speculative holders, resetting the market structure.

Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich stated that the positive calculation of productivity benefits and the concentration of capital owners will lead AI agents to bypass traditional financial systems and choose digital assets like Bitcoin as a store of value. This trend is expected to accelerate.

Standard Chartered Bank research shows that stablecoin issuers could become the largest buyers of U.S. Treasury bonds, with the stablecoin market cap expected to reach $2 trillion by 2028. This expansion could generate an additional demand of approximately $0.8 to $1 trillion for Treasury bonds, and an excess demand of $0.9 trillion may emerge over the next three years.

Trump announced an increase in global tariffs from 10% to 15%, triggering market concerns and causing a sharp decline in risk assets such as Bitcoin. Analysts point out that $60,000 is a key support level; a break below could trigger panic selling. Market uncertainty stems from changes in the legal framework. Investors are advised to stay calm, focus on technical support levels, avoid chasing gains or panic selling, and manage their positions cautiously.

Last week, the US stock market experienced volatility due to profit concerns over AI software stocks and the Supreme Court's tariff ruling. Bitcoin ETFs saw five consecutive weeks of outflows, indicating a cautious attitude toward risk assets. Market focus has shifted to NVIDIA's upcoming earnings report and the US January PPI data, which are expected to provide important clues about the economic outlook.

Recent adjustments to U.S. labor market data have significantly altered economic outlooks, reducing job numbers by 862,000. This unexpected change weakened short-term growth expectations and prompted investors to reassess future policy directions. Declining inflation pressures have led to lower bond yields and favorable global financial conditions, causing Bitcoin to rise alongside traditional assets. This indicates a structural shift in Bitcoin's market behavior, as it increasingly responds to macroeconomic factors rather than solely crypto-specific news.