CF Benchmarks' latest report indicates a significant divergence between Bitcoin price and global money supply growth. Since mid-2025, global M2 money supply has increased approximately 12%, while Bitcoin price has declined 35%. High interest rates and rising energy prices have limited capital inflows. Over the medium to long term, if the financial environment improves, Bitcoin price may have a rebound opportunity.

2026-02-13 15:00 to 15:15 (UTC), BTC recorded a +0.93% return within a 15-minute window, with the price ranging between $67,184 and $67,803, showing a clear short-term upward trend. During this period, trading volume slightly increased, market attention grew, and overall volatility remained at an average level, reflecting a warming of investors' risk appetite. The main drivers of this movement are sustained loose macro liquidity and increased institutional buying. Influenced by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, the expansion of global M2 has driven a stronger willingness to allocate risk assets. Meanwhile, the US Bitcoin E

Cryptocurrency analyst Ben Cowen recently questioned the popular market view that "liquidity easing will once again boost Bitcoin." He believes that many macro bulls rely too heavily on the assumption that global M2 money supply will continue to expand, but actual data may be pointing in the opposite direction. Ben Cowen pointed out that M2 may not continue to rise from current levels and could instead peak and decline in the coming months. This judgment aligns with the expectation of a potential strengthening of the US dollar. Historically, Bitcoin's cycle peaks tend to lead M2, while price lows often occur shortly after M2 peaks. Therefore, if M2 is about to enter a decline phase, the liquidity environment in the crypto market could come under pressure.

ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood stated on a podcast that the ratio of gold prices to M2 money supply has hit an all-time high, indicating an irrational boom that may correct. In contrast, Bitcoin is still in its early stages, with a target price of up to $1.5 million by 2030.

Since mid-2025, the price of Bitcoin has decoupled from the growth of the global M2 money supply, sparking disagreement among analysts. Fidelity Digital Assets remains optimistic, believing that M2 growth will benefit Bitcoin prices, while Mister Crypto warns that this decoupling could signal a market top and the start of a bear market. Despite the uncertainties, investors still remain bullish on Bitcoin as a store of value.

BlockBeats News, January 14 — Data shows that the 52-week correlation between Bitcoin and gold has dropped to zero for the first time since mid-2022, and may turn negative by the end of January. Historically, in similar situations, Bitcoin has typically risen an average of 56% within about two months, corresponding to a price range of approximately $144,000 to $150,000. Analysis indicates that divergence between Bitcoin and gold trends often signals a strong upward movement for BTC. The current macro environment is also seen as bullish, including a rebound in global liquidity (M2 growth) and the nearing end of Federal Reserve quantitative tightening (QT). Matt Hougan, Head of Research at Bitwise, stated that a new round of global monetary easing has begun, which could continue to drive Bitcoin prices higher through 2026. From a cyclical perspective, analysts believe that Bitcoin

Delphi Digital pointed out in its 2026 Market Outlook report that global liquidity will improve, major central bank policies will become more aligned, and deficit spending will drive debt monetization. M2 and gold prices hit new highs, which could be favorable for assets like Bitcoin.

Golden Finance reports that the People's Bank of China: As of the end of November, the broad money (M2) balance was 336.99 trillion yuan, an increase of 8% year-on-year. The narrow money (M1) balance was 112.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.9% year-on-year. The currency in circulation (M0) balance was 13.74 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.6% year-on-year. Net cash injections over the first eleven months amounted to 917.5 billion yuan. (Jinshi)

Foresight News reports that analyst Willy Woo tweeted, "Don't assume that M2 (Broad Money Supply) growth will necessarily drive Bitcoin pump. At the end of the cycle, it is Bitcoin that leads the M2 trend. My personal view is that, based on the model of capital inflows and outflows in the Bitcoin and Crypto Assets space, we have likely reached a peak."

According to ChainCatcher news, a recent research report by CryptoQuant indicates that the total supply of ERC20 stablecoins has surpassed $160 billion in 2025, reaching a historical high, which is considered a key indicator for predicting Bitcoin price movement. The research points out that compared to the global M2 Money Supply, the supply of stablecoins shows a more significant correlation with Bitcoin price movement. The report analyzes that stablecoins, as the main source of liquidity in the crypto market, can reflect the flow of investor funds more quickly and directly, and their supply growth often precedes the rise in Bitcoin prices. During the bull run in 2021 and the market recovery in 2024-2025, the growth of stablecoin supply clearly preceded the rise in Bitcoin prices. The CryptoQuant research team states that the current supply of stablecoins is at a historical high, indicating the underlying purchasing power of the market.