Gate News Report, March 20 — CF Benchmarks’ latest report shows that Bitcoin prices are still significantly lagging behind the global money supply growth trend. Since mid-2025, the global M2 money supply has increased by about 12%, while Bitcoin prices have fallen approximately 35% during the same period. The index provider noted that Bitcoin is currently trading at around $70,000, whereas the model-based “fair value” is close to $136,000, indicating a historic gap between Bitcoin and liquidity expansion.
Research Director Gabe Selby stated that long-term data suggests that the gap between Bitcoin prices and M2 money supply is usually temporary, but U.S. monetary policy remains a key influencing factor. The Federal Reserve has reduced its balance sheet from its peak to about $6.7 trillion and maintained a high-interest-rate environment, tightening financial conditions and limiting capital inflows into high-risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Rising energy prices have also increased household financial pressure. Since late February, U.S. gasoline prices have risen by about 81 cents, potentially increasing household expenditures by approximately $740 for the year, which partially offsets the disposable income gains from tax refunds. The market is also paying attention to potential supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the inflation risks they could trigger. Recently, oil prices briefly surged past $100 per barrel before falling back to around $92, still exerting pressure on risk assets.
CF Benchmarks pointed out that in past cycles, Bitcoin typically catches up with liquidity trends gradually after the Federal Reserve cuts rates or slows down its balance sheet reduction. Selby emphasized that if demand driven by U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate bonds rebounds, it would provide structural support for Bitcoin prices. Such sustained buying activity was absent in previous cycles.
Market analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s short-term trend remains influenced by high interest rates, rising energy prices, and geopolitical tensions, but there is potential for a price rebound in the medium to long term if the financial environment improves.
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