US Launches "BETS OFF Act" to Target War Prediction Markets, Insider Trading Concerns Surface

Gate News Report, March 18 — U.S. Democratic lawmakers introduced a bill called the “BETS OFF Act” aimed at restricting predictive betting on wars, government decisions, and national security events. The proposal was jointly sponsored by Senator Chris Murphy and Representative Greg Casar, with the goal of curbing speculative trading based on sensitive information.

The bill, officially titled “Prohibiting Event Trading on Sensitive Actions and Federal Functions,” primarily bans betting on wars, terrorism, assassinations, and other government activities—especially when participants may have advance knowledge of the outcomes or hold influence. The legislative background stems from recent unusual betting incidents—some accounts placed large bets hours before U.S. military actions abroad, raising concerns about insider trading.

Data disclosed by lawmakers show that around 150 accounts placed bets on the eve of military operations related to Iran, with 109 accounts earning over $10,000, 16 accounts earning over $100,000, and the highest single account profit approaching $500,000. Most of these accounts were created on the day of betting, exhibiting clear abnormal behavior patterns.

In a public statement, Chris Murphy noted that such activities could involve individuals with access to confidential information profiting from it, representing a serious systemic loophole. Greg Casar emphasized that, given the high costs of war and public resources, such speculative behavior raises significant ethical concerns.

Additionally, some lawmakers have pointed fingers at the Trump family’s involvement in prediction markets, including investments and advisory roles in related projects. However, no official investigation conclusions have been announced regarding these allegations.

As prediction markets continue to grow in influence within the crypto ecosystem, regulators are beginning to pay closer attention to their potential risks. If passed, this bill could directly impact blockchain-based event trading models and reshape the compliance boundaries of related markets.