Prediction Market

Decentralized prediction markets led by Polymarket and Kalshi have accumulated over $9 billion in monthly trading volume by 2025, allowing users to bet on the outcomes of political, economic, and sports events. As AI technology drives the emergence of various arbitrage strategies, from discovering cross-platform mispricings to large-scale information manipulation, thousands of traders are participating. However, these strategies that rely on market inefficiencies and information asymmetry are not without risks. This article will analyze the principles, processes, and potential dangers of each strategy. Basic Logic: What does Polymarket's "Shared Order Book" represent? Before diving into arbitrage strategies, it’s essential to understand Polymarket’s core mechanism: the (Shared Order Book). Unlike traditional exchanges, Polymarket's YES

The article introduces the features of the Polymarket platform, including market search, personal account information, leaderboards, and reward mechanisms, helping users understand trading strategies, fund flows, and market participation depth. The article also analyzes the core sections of the trading interface, such as the market probability chart, order book, and order placement area, and distinguishes the characteristics and risks of binary markets versus multiple-choice markets.

Regulatory chief Robert DeNault of the prediction market platform Kalshi announced that Kalshi plans to publicly disclose a series of insider trading disciplinary notices to users within the next few weeks, as a result of months of clearing a backlog of suspicious transactions; CEO Tarek Mansour confirmed that the monitoring system "Poirot" has completed over 200 investigations, with some cases already handed over to law enforcement agencies.

White House Digital Asset Advisor Patrick Vitter outlined a compromise draft of the bill to representatives from the cryptocurrency industry and banking sector. The core provision bans companies from earning yields on idle stablecoin balances, shifting the discussion toward activity-based reward mechanisms linked to transactions or network participation. Data from the Polymarket prediction platform shows that the probability of the bill passing this year has dropped to 44% at one point.

On February 24, on-chain investigator ZachXBT posted on social media that he will release a major investigation into one of the "most profitable companies in the crypto industry" on February 26, predicting that the market will heat up rapidly. Betting volume around the event of "the next crypto company exposed for insider trading" has approached $3 million, and market sentiment has clearly shifted toward high speculation and information warfare. This prediction contract mainly reflects traders' judgments about the potential investigation targets rather than confirmed facts. As a blockchain-based prediction platform, Polymarket allows users to trade contracts on real-world event outcomes with real funds. Its odds are often seen as real-time indicators of market confidence and expected distribution, making it an important tool for observing unresolved events in the crypto industry, especially after the 2024 US elections.

Foresight News reports that Kalshi News tweeted that the prediction market platform Kalshi has removed all non-employee X affiliated account icons. Regarding the online rumor that "X removed Kalshi affiliated account icons according to the updated paid partnership policy," they stated that the X team was not involved in the decision-making.

Blockchain investigator ZachXBT posted a teaser on the X platform on February 24, announcing that on February 26 he will reveal a major insider trading investigation targeting "one of the most profitable companies" in the cryptocurrency industry, but did not disclose the name of the target company. The news has generated significant market attention, with the Polymarket betting market accumulating over $2.2 million in trading volume within a few hours.

PANews February 24 News, the prediction market professional trading terminal Fireplace has completed a $1.5 million pre-seed funding round led by Frachtis, with participation from White Star Capital and several other VCs and angels. The funds will be used to build cross-platform prediction market trading infrastructure for institutions, including cross-scenario aggregation, intelligent order routing, real-time data, institutional-level execution, charting tools, as well as wallet, whale, and "insider" tracking features.

BlockBeats News, February 23 — The probability of Bitcoin dropping back to $60,000 in February on Polymarket has decreased to 31%. Additionally, the probability of Bitcoin falling to $55,000 in February is 10%, and the probability of rising to $75,000 in February is 6%.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that according to Dune data, market trading remains active. Last week, the number of transactions reached a new all-time high of 38.01 million, with Polymarket accounting for 22.58 million transactions, ranking first; Kalshi with 14.86 million transactions, ranking second; and Opinion with 227,500 transactions, ranking third.

Foresight News reports that according to the latest data from Polymarket, the probability that the FDV on the day after ROBO's launch exceeds $200 million is 69%, the probability that it exceeds $100 million is 95%, and the probability that it exceeds $300 million is 35%. Currently, the trading volume of this prediction market exceeds $220,000.

According to data from the prediction platform Polymarket, the current market believes that by July 2026, the probability of Trump being ordered by the court to refund tariffs is only 19%. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Trump's trade tax policies are illegal, and Trump expressed dissatisfaction, mentioning that there are alternative plans.

According to analyst defioasis.eth, Polymarket Builders reached a trading volume of $125 million in the past week, surpassing $100 million for three consecutive weeks. Meanwhile, betmoar accounts for 50.6% of the market share with a trading volume of over $550 million. Polymtrade became the first builder to surpass 10,000 traders.

Investor Nic Carter posted an analysis predicting the current market situation, believing that despite potential in the future, it still faces structural issues such as market fragmentation and insider trading, which could lead to liquidity shortages and declining user confidence. Currently, prediction markets mainly rely on sports betting, and fairness issues in non-sports sectors are concerning.

Foresight News Report: According to the latest data from Polymarket, the probability that the FDV on the day after Opinion's launch exceeds $250 million is 87%, over $500 million is 58%, and over $800 million is 27%. Currently, the trading volume of this prediction market is $5.53 million.

ChainCatcher reports that, according to Polymarket data, the probability of Bitcoin falling below $55,000 by 2026 is as high as 73%, while the probability of reaching $100,000 on the upside is only 38%.

The Dutch gambling authority Ksa has issued a cease and desist order and fined Polymarket for providing gambling services in the Netherlands without a license, facing a penalty of €420,000 per week, with a maximum of €840,000. This incident has sparked legal controversy over whether prediction markets are considered gambling. Ksa emphasizes that unlicensed platforms are not allowed to operate in the market and that prediction markets may pose social risks, which could influence future regulatory trends.

The Dutch gambling regulatory authority KSA has classified Polymarket as illegal gambling, requiring it to cease operations locally and imposing a fine of €420,000 per week. The article discusses the legal positioning and regulatory trends of prediction markets, showing that Europe is tightening its stance compared to the more lenient approach in the United States, and emphasizes the regulatory challenges faced by Polymarket and the double-edged sword effect of globalization.

Gate News bot message, a newly created wallet has placed a $100K bet on a potential U.S. strike against Iran in March. The timing and amount of the wager have raised questions about whether this represents an informed position or speculative gambling.