Prediction Market

The U.S. federal government is working with the CFTC and the Department of Justice to try to shift regulatory authority over Kalshi prediction markets from state and local governments to the federal level, arguing that sports event contracts are financial derivatives. If the court supports this position, it will change the legal status of prediction markets and standardize regulation nationwide, reducing the influence of state-level gambling laws.

A U.S. federal judge, Michael Liburdi, temporarily blocked the state of Arizona from proceeding with criminal charges against prediction market platform Kalshi. The state has brought 20 counts of illegal gambling against Kalshi. The CFTC argues that federal oversight takes priority and that prediction markets fall under its regulation; if ultimately established, it would benefit the legal environment for the entire industry. The case still requires further proceedings.

The U.S. federal government is working with the CFTC and the Department of Justice to try to shift regulatory authority over Kalshi prediction markets from state and local governments to the federal level, arguing that sports event contracts are financial derivatives. If the court backs this position, it will change the legal status of prediction markets and standardize regulation nationwide, reducing the influence of state-level gambling laws.

Polymarket data shows that the probability of Bitcoin breaking above $75,000 in April is 77%, and the probability of breaking above $80,000 is 24%; the probability of dropping to below $65,000 is 30%. Deribit data shows that the max pain（maximum pain）price for Bitcoin options expiring on April 24 is $70,000, with a notional amount of approximately $6.98 billion.

The U.S. federal government argues that sports event wagering should be treated as a financial derivative rather than gambling, and it seeks to bar Arizona from enforcing against Kalshi, the prediction market platform. If the court backs the federal position, prediction markets will operate under uniform nationwide regulation, weakening each state’s ability to regulate. This legal dispute concerns the legitimacy of prediction markets and the allocation of regulatory authority, affecting the future development of the industry.

The article discusses legal disputes involving Polymarket prediction markets, especially the unclear boundary between insider trading and gambling. It emphasizes that using USDC for settlement exposes Chinese participants to legal risk, and it mentions the “End Prediction Market Corruption Act” proposed by a U.S. senator, which prohibits certain government officials and their family members from participating in prediction market trading.

Bitcoin broke through $72,000 on April 10, mainly due to a fragile ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran that boosted market risk appetite, with funds flowing from safe-haven assets into Bitcoin. Increased institutional inflows and a rebound in Large Investors’ holdings are driving the price higher. Technical analysis shows that the main resistance lies in the $72,200 to $73,500 range. Despite a bullish outlook in the short term, there is still disagreement over forecasts for Bitcoin’s price by year-end, and the risk of a pullback also needs to be watched.

A Bank of America report says that prediction markets are expected to see trading volume grow this week, with Kalshi growing 6% under CFTC regulation and accounting for 89% market share. By contrast, Polymarket saw its trading volume fall 16% due to compliance restrictions. Legal disputes between the CFTC and various states will affect the future direction of prediction markets and may reshape the market’s competitive landscape. Major exchanges such as Coinbase and Binance are accelerating entry into this space, further driving prediction markets to become a mainstream financial product.

The White House Office of Management issued a warning on March 23, banning employees from using nonpublic information to participate in prediction markets, saying this constitutes a criminal offense. The report said that 15 minutes before Trump announced a pause in airstrikes against Iran, oil futures saw unusual trading, and three Polymarket accounts earned more than 600k yuan by accurately predicting outcomes, raising concerns about insider trading. The White House emphasized that this behavior violates ethical standards and said there is no specific evidence yet pointing to any individuals who broke the rules.

Polymarket’s odds prediction for Taylor Swift’s wedding have fallen to 19%, down 45% within 24 hours. The latest reports indicate the wedding will take place on July 3 in New York, rather than the June 13 date previously rumored.

Gate News, April 10, Polymarket prediction market data shows the probability of "OneFootball Club surpasses a $50 million FDV market cap after one day of opening" falling to 14%, with a 24-hour decline of 51%. Late yesterday afternoon (April 9), OneFootball Club announced on the X platform that its token OFC has officially gone live, with a current market cap of $45 million.

The White House warns staff not to use their positions to bet in prediction markets, especially by engaging in unusual trading activity before policies suddenly change. Accounts that have already profited more than $600k through prediction have drawn criticism, and critics suspect that someone used insider information to profit. The White House confirmed the authenticity of the warning.

A prediction platform shows that on April 9, an account lost more than $4.3 million. In the NBA Bulls vs. Wizards game, it bought the Bulls point spread. Before the game, the Bulls were ranked 12th in the Eastern Conference, and the Wizards were ranked 15th.

Polymarket is initiating a significant upgrade of its exchange, set to roll out over the next few weeks. The update includes a rebuilt trading engine, enhanced smart contracts, and the introduction of a new collateral token, Polymarket USD, aimed at improving usability and user experience.

Social app Giggles announced on April 9 that it has completed more than $1 million in Pre-Seed funding, led by 1kx. The funds will be used to improve the product and scale its user base. The app combines a prediction-market mechanism, allowing users to “buy in” early to help turn “content discovery” into an economic activity.

Polymarket is launching a new collateral token, Polymarket USD, replacing USDC.e to enhance transaction speed and reduce costs amidst regulatory challenges. The upgrade includes the CTF Exchange V2 for improved order matching and anticipates a potential POLY token introduction.

The U.S. CFTC and the Department of Justice are asking a federal court to stop Arizona from enforcing its state gambling laws against prediction market operator Kalshi, arguing that its contracts should be regulated by federal oversight rather than state statutes. Related criminal charges have been filed, and the hearing is scheduled for April 13.

Crypto analyst Andrey Sergeenkov disclosed that only 0.015% of Polymarket traders can consistently earn $5,000 per month for four months, and only 840 wallets have profits exceeding $100k. Most traders leave after short-term trading, and the share of long-term active traders is low.