Gate News message, April 15 — Bernstein released a research report predicting prediction market trading volume will grow from $51 billion in 2025 to approximately $1 trillion by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 80%. Trading volume is expected to reach $240 billion in 2026, while Polymarket and Kalshi combined have already accumulated $60 billion in trading volume year-to-date.
The report identifies three core growth drivers: clarification of federal-level regulation, blockchain infrastructure supporting global liquidity, and integration by mainstream trading platforms. Industry revenue is projected to expand from approximately $400 million in 2025 to roughly $10.8 billion by 2030.
Distribution capability is cited as a key competitive barrier in the sector. Major retail brokerages have achieved significant traction in prediction markets, with one platform reporting an annualized revenue scale of $350 million and advancing exchange infrastructure development. Another leading platform provides national access to over 1,000 contracts through its partnership model. Bernstein maintains “outperform” ratings on both platforms.
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