Gate News, March 17 — Prediction market platform Polymarket faces another wave of controversy. An Israeli journalist reporting on the Iranian missile attack was repeatedly harassed and even received death threats from users suspected of participating in large-scale betting, sparking widespread concerns over market manipulation and information interference.
According to Emanuel Fabian of The Times of Israel, after reporting on the Iranian missile attack on Beit Shemesh, Israel, on March 10, he received anonymous emails, social media messages, and instant messaging threats demanding he change his report from “missile attack” to “interception debris.” These claims are believed to potentially influence the outcome of a prediction market bet involving approximately $15 million.
Fabian stated that these pressures escalated into direct threats. A user claiming to be “Chaim” explicitly told him via WhatsApp that he would take action against his personal safety if the report was not altered, repeatedly setting “deadlines.” Harassers also disclosed sensitive information such as his home address, worsening the situation. The case has now been handed over to police for investigation.
Motivated by this, the series of actions is believed to be closely related to a bet on Polymarket regarding whether Iran attacked Israel on March 10. Some bettors attempted to change the event’s characterization to “no” to avoid significant losses. The market is currently awaiting a final ruling from the UMA system.
Fabian pointed out that such incidents reveal potential structural risks in prediction markets, where some participants may manipulate information sources or pressure key opinion nodes to influence market outcomes. He also expressed concern that if some media professionals waver due to financial incentives, it could threaten the authenticity of news.
It’s worth noting that this is not an isolated case. Previously, Israeli authorities arrested individuals suspected of using confidential information to place bets in prediction markets, further fueling concerns over insider trading.
As prediction markets grow in scale, challenges related to transparency, data source credibility, and regulatory frameworks are becoming increasingly apparent. Finding a balance between decentralization and compliance remains a pressing issue for the industry.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Prediction market theory founder Robin Hanson: insider information is one of the value propositions of prediction markets
Polymarket and Kalshi have rolled out restrictions on insider trading under regulatory pressure; however, Robin Hanson, the founder of the prediction market theory, believes that inside information is a core mechanism for market value and for quickly reflecting the truth. He used the metaphor of a poker table to warn about the risks of information asymmetry, and argued that if insiders were completely excluded, the market might just become a riddle dressed up as a financial product. The article says he views prediction markets as democracy rather than elite monopolization, and questions whether, if officials’ trading were banned, reporters’ leaks should also be restricted. This view comes from ABMedia’s chain-news report.
ChainNewsAbmedia2h ago
CLARITY Bill enters a critical 28-day window! Polymarket: Probability of passing drops to 38%
According to data from Polymarket prediction markets on April 27, the probability that the “Digital Asset Market Clarity Act” (CLARITY Act) will be completed into law in 2026 has fallen from a previous peak of 70% to 38-50%. As of April 27, there are only 28 days left until May 25, 2026, Memorial Day holiday in the United States.
MarketWhisper6h ago
SSRN Research Paper: Polymarket’s Pricing Accuracy Comes From 3.14% Informed Traders
According to academic paper published on SSRN on April 20, a research team from London Business School and Yale University analyzed Polymarket’s complete trading records and concluded that the platform’s pricing accuracy is mainly driven by 3.14% of informed traders, rather than the collective intelligence of all accounts. The study covers 98,906 events, 210,322 markets, involves 1.72 million accounts, and total trading volume reaches $13.76 billion.
MarketWhisper7h ago
Research reveals: Polymarket players take home 30% of profits by winning 3% of the positions—more than 70% of players absorb all losses
A new study analyzes Polymarket’s trading records from 2023–2025 and shows that only 3.14% of experienced winners control more than 30% of the profits. Crowd participation alone is not enough to explain overall accuracy; at the same time, it tracks 1,950 highly suspicious insider trading accounts that, while not driving predictions, amplified price volatility. The case shows that large bets were placed and profits were made before the U.S. announced developments regarding Venezuela. The research questions “wisdom of crowds” and emphasizes the need for increasingly strict regulation.
ChainNewsAbmedia9h ago
Polymarket Analysis: Crypto Events Account for 40% of Top 10 Most Volatile Markets
Gate News message, April 27 — Polysights, a third-party prediction market data platform, analyzed over 20,000 Polymarket markets from the past six months and released a volatility ranking. The analysis revealed that cryptocurrency-related markets account for four of the top ten most volatile markets
GateNews10h ago
Polymarket Announces April 28 Upgrade: Collateral Assets Migrated to pUSD, Trading Paused for About 1 Hour
According to an official announcement posted on X on April 27 by Polymarket developers, Polymarket will roll out a full platform infrastructure upgrade at 11:00 UTC on April 28, with trading paused for about 1 hour. This upgrade includes new generation trading contracts, a rebuilt order book, and the introduction of a new collateral token, pUSD. The platform’s existing collateral assets will be migrated from USDC.e to pUSD.
MarketWhisper10h ago
