Gate News message, April 27 — Polysights, a third-party prediction market data platform, analyzed over 20,000 Polymarket markets from the past six months and released a volatility ranking. The analysis revealed that cryptocurrency-related markets account for four of the top ten most volatile markets, reflecting high information asymmetry where few participants can accurately predict outcomes.
The platform identified several key patterns. Deadline-related questions—such as “Will X happen by [date]?”—generate more volatility than outcome-based questions like “Who will win?” Additionally, market results show a bias toward “yes” outcomes: in markets exceeding $1 million, “yes” results occur 50% of the time compared to 27% across all markets. When markets experience sharp volatility, the final result tends to be “yes.”
Market size also influences price stability. Mid-sized markets ($1 million to $7 million) exhibit chaotic behavior, while markets above $10 million see more stable price movements due to large capital inflows.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Prediction market theory founder Robin Hanson: insider information is one of the value propositions of prediction markets
Polymarket and Kalshi have rolled out restrictions on insider trading under regulatory pressure; however, Robin Hanson, the founder of the prediction market theory, believes that inside information is a core mechanism for market value and for quickly reflecting the truth. He used the metaphor of a poker table to warn about the risks of information asymmetry, and argued that if insiders were completely excluded, the market might just become a riddle dressed up as a financial product. The article says he views prediction markets as democracy rather than elite monopolization, and questions whether, if officials’ trading were banned, reporters’ leaks should also be restricted. This view comes from ABMedia’s chain-news report.
ChainNewsAbmedia1h ago
CLARITY Bill enters a critical 28-day window! Polymarket: Probability of passing drops to 38%
According to data from Polymarket prediction markets on April 27, the probability that the “Digital Asset Market Clarity Act” (CLARITY Act) will be completed into law in 2026 has fallen from a previous peak of 70% to 38-50%. As of April 27, there are only 28 days left until May 25, 2026, Memorial Day holiday in the United States.
MarketWhisper5h ago
SSRN Research Paper: Polymarket’s Pricing Accuracy Comes From 3.14% Informed Traders
According to academic paper published on SSRN on April 20, a research team from London Business School and Yale University analyzed Polymarket’s complete trading records and concluded that the platform’s pricing accuracy is mainly driven by 3.14% of informed traders, rather than the collective intelligence of all accounts. The study covers 98,906 events, 210,322 markets, involves 1.72 million accounts, and total trading volume reaches $13.76 billion.
MarketWhisper6h ago
Research reveals: Polymarket players take home 30% of profits by winning 3% of the positions—more than 70% of players absorb all losses
A new study analyzes Polymarket’s trading records from 2023–2025 and shows that only 3.14% of experienced winners control more than 30% of the profits. Crowd participation alone is not enough to explain overall accuracy; at the same time, it tracks 1,950 highly suspicious insider trading accounts that, while not driving predictions, amplified price volatility. The case shows that large bets were placed and profits were made before the U.S. announced developments regarding Venezuela. The research questions “wisdom of crowds” and emphasizes the need for increasingly strict regulation.
ChainNewsAbmedia7h ago
Polymarket Announces April 28 Upgrade: Collateral Assets Migrated to pUSD, Trading Paused for About 1 Hour
According to an official announcement posted on X on April 27 by Polymarket developers, Polymarket will roll out a full platform infrastructure upgrade at 11:00 UTC on April 28, with trading paused for about 1 hour. This upgrade includes new generation trading contracts, a rebuilt order book, and the introduction of a new collateral token, pUSD. The platform’s existing collateral assets will be migrated from USDC.e to pUSD.
MarketWhisper8h ago
Polymarket Non-Sports Volume Reaches $7.5B vs. Kalshi's $1.6B, Says Blockchain Capital Partner
Gate News message, April 27 — According to Spencer Bogart, a partner at Blockchain Capital, Kalshi and Polymarket have nearly identical total trading volumes of approximately $12.2 billion each (Kalshi at $12.29 billion, Polymarket at $12.22 billion). However, when sports-related trades are
GateNews9h ago
