Gate Daily Report (March 13): CFTC Releases First-Ever Guidance on Prediction Market Manipulation Risks; SEC Calls for Securities Tokenization Exemptions

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a strong rebound, temporarily reaching around $71,480 on March 13. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued its first guidance on prediction market manipulation risks and is soliciting public comments on proposed regulations. SEC Chair Gensler called for establishing an innovative exemption mechanism for security tokenization.

Macro Events & Crypto Hotspots

1. According to Bloomberg, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released its first guidance on prediction market manipulation risks, requiring exchanges to consult with regulators before launching markets that may be susceptible to manipulation and insider trading. The CFTC stated that exchanges can continue to use self-certification processes to introduce new markets but must consider whether certain event contracts pose higher risks of manipulation or price distortion and communicate with staff during the initial design phase.

The agency also issued a pre-notice regarding proposed rules, seeking public feedback on how to amend existing prediction market regulations. CFTC Chair stated that this aims to develop new rules based on a reasonable interpretation of the Commodity Exchange Act, while assuring the public that the CFTC will exercise exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets. The guidance specifically notes that if event contracts are deemed contrary to public interest, the CFTC may block contracts related to assassination, war, or terrorism. However, the document does not explicitly state that these markets will be completely banned. The new guidance indicates that sports-related contracts can continue, but exchanges should cooperate with sports leagues to monitor potential insider trading and handle ongoing investigations jointly.

2. SEC Chair Gensler stated at the Investor Advisory Committee (IAC) meeting that the committee will propose recommendations regarding equity tokenization, recognizing that tokenization can improve settlement efficiency, reduce settlement risk, and minimize unnecessary intermediaries.

Gensler expects the SEC to soon review an “innovation exemption” allowing limited trading of certain tokenized securities, providing a practical foundation for developing long-term regulatory frameworks. Over the past 13 months, the SEC’s Crypto Task Force has gathered feedback from market participants through roundtables and public consultations, continuously seeking input on exemption design.

News Highlights

1. Suspected Trend Research wallet borrowed 27,000 ETH four hours ago to short 27,000 ETH.

2. JPMorgan Chase faces a class-action lawsuit, accused of aiding Goliath Ventures in a crypto Ponzi scheme.

3. U.S. Senator: The Crypto Market Structure Bill is unlikely to pass before April.

4. SEC advisory group supports promoting tokenized securities and outlines security measures.

5. The U.S. Senate passed a housing bill that includes a clause prohibiting the Federal Reserve from issuing a CBDC.

6. A whale lost nearly $50 million when exchanging USDT for AAVE, ignoring slippage warnings.

7. The CFTC issued its first guidance on prediction market manipulation risks and is seeking public feedback on proposed rules.

8. Tether’s Chief Investment Officer Richard Heathcote will step down, with his deputy Zachary Lyons succeeding him.

Market Trends

1. Latest Bitcoin news: BTC sharply rebounded, temporarily around $71,480, with $101 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, mainly short liquidations.

2. U.S. stock markets declined on March 12. Iran attacked two oil tankers, causing crude oil prices to surge near $100 per barrel, further fueling inflation concerns, prompting investors to exit equities. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 739.42 points (1.56%) to 46,677.85; the S&P 500 dropped 103.22 points (1.52%) to 6,672.58; the Nasdaq declined 404.15 points (1.78%) to 22,311.98.

(Source: Gate)

3. According to Gate’s BTC/USDT liquidation map, with the current price at $71,329.60, if the price drops to around $71,149, total long liquidations exceed $212 million; if it rises to about $71,811, short liquidations exceed $135 million. Short liquidations are lower than long liquidations, so traders should control leverage appropriately to avoid large-scale liquidations during market fluctuations.

(Source: Coinglass)

4. In the past 24 hours, spot inflow was $2.36 billion, outflow was $2.44 billion, resulting in a net outflow of $0.8 billion.

(Source: Coinglass)

5. Over the past 24 hours, net outflows led in contracts for $ETH, $BTC, $SOL, $RIVER, $XAG, indicating potential trading opportunities.

Featured Opinions from X KOL

Phyrex Ni (@Phyrex_Ni): “It’s still a day dominated by war. Today I saw an article citing a Morning Consult poll showing that 48% of Americans blame Trump for rising oil prices, only 16% blame oil companies, 13% blame global markets, and 11% blame former President Biden. Over the past month, US gasoline prices have increased by over 20%, averaging $3.60 per gallon amid US-Iran geopolitical tensions.”

“The main blame is on Trump, mainly because Americans believe he personally ordered military strikes on Iran, directly triggering the Iran conflict and disrupting global oil supply. Moreover, the latest Kalshi prediction for the midterm elections shows an 85% chance that Democrats will win the House, reflecting a lack of trust in the current administration.”

“During his campaign, Trump also promised to cut energy prices (gasoline, electricity) by half within 12 months, aiming to bring gasoline below $2 per gallon. I remember reporting that this was positive for BTC mining, but now, after 12 months, US oil prices not only failed to halve but are higher than Trump’s constant criticism of Biden’s $3.50.”

“The midterm elections will be tough for Trump and the Republicans.”

“Looking at Bitcoin data, all metrics are normal. Investors are gradually adapting to the current volatility, and BTC around $70,000 has not triggered emotional swings. Turnover and trading volume are declining, as if entering the final phase—investors are losing interest in current prices.”

“This situation is actually good for Bitcoin. Liquidity is low, and sentiment is weak. If we can endure this period and positive developments occur—such as ending the war or the Fed cutting rates—it could drive prices higher, probably in the second half of the year.”

Today’s Outlook

1. China’s M2 money supply (YoY) for February, previous 9.0%

2. UK January Goods Trade Balance (million GBP), previous -22,724

3. UK January Industrial Output (YoY), previous 0.5%

4. France February Consumer Price Index (MoM) final, previous 0.7%

5. US January Durable Goods Orders (initial MoM), previous -1.4%

6. US January Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (MoM), previous 0.4%

7. US January Personal Consumption Expenditures (MoM), previous 0.4%

8. US Q4 Core PCE Price Index (annualized QoQ), previous 2.8%

9. US January Personal Income (MoM), previous 0.3%

10. US Q4 Real GDP (annualized QoQ), previous 1.4%

11. US March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (initial), previous 56.6