Monero (XMR) extended its rebound on Wednesday, climbing 5% and building on a 4% bounce from the $300 level. The privacy-focused cryptocurrency is regaining bullish traction as derivatives data and large investor activity point to strengthening conviction. From a technical standpoint, XMR now eyes a potential continuation toward the 200-day Exponential Moving Average near $375.
In the derivatives market, Monero is showing renewed strength despite broader risk-off sentiment across crypto. Data from CoinGlass indicates that XMR futures Open Interest has risen to $99 million, marking an increase of more than 6% in the past 24 hours. Rising Open Interest typically signals fresh position buildup and growing participation, reflecting higher notional exposure in outstanding contracts.
Market positioning leans slightly bullish. The long-to-short ratio stands at 1.0354, while short liquidations totaling $91,640 over the past day have significantly outpaced long liquidations of $14,300. This imbalance suggests that bearish traders have been forced out at a higher rate, giving bulls greater control of short-term momentum.
Additional insights from CryptoQuant show increased average order sizes in Monero futures, indicating that large wallet investors—commonly referred to as whales—are actively recalibrating exposure. When larger players increase activity during a rebound phase, it often signals renewed strategic interest rather than speculative noise.
Technical Structure Points to $375 as Key Breakout Level
Monero’s recent rebound originated at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level near $300, measured from the August 15 low of $231 to the January 14 high of $799. The strong reaction from this zone marks the second major bounce in February, reinforcing demand around $300 and raising the possibility of a developing double-bottom formation.
The potential neckline of this structure aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near $370, a level last tested on February 14. A decisive break above this area would strengthen the bullish case, but confirmation of a sustained recovery likely requires a move beyond the 200-day EMA at $375. Clearing that barrier could pave the way toward the 50-day EMA at $389 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement near $429.
Still, short-term risks remain. The 50-day EMA continues to trend downward and is approaching the 200-day EMA, raising the possibility of a bearish Death Cross formation. Momentum indicators suggest that selling pressure is fading but do not yet confirm a full trend reversal. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence has crossed above its signal line, supporting upward momentum, while the Relative Strength Index has recovered from oversold conditions to around 44, indicating stabilization rather than strong bullish dominance.
On the downside, a sustained breakdown below $300 would invalidate the recovery thesis and expose the prior base near $230, corresponding to the 100% Fibonacci retracement level. For now, Monero’s price action, rising Open Interest, and renewed whale participation suggest growing upside bias, but key resistance levels must be cleared before a broader structural reversal can be confirmed.
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