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Polymarket Data: The probability of a certain CEX IPO in 2026 has dropped to 17%, with ICE investing at a $25 billion valuation yesterday.

Gate News Report, March 6 — According to data from the Polymarket website, the probability that "a certain CEX will go public in 2026" has declined from a high of 57% in early January to 17% currently, with a trading volume exceeding $400,000. Previously, on March 5, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, ICE, invested in the exchange with a valuation of $25 billion. ICE has not disclosed the specific investment amount or terms but emphasized a shared vision for the future between the two companies.

Polymarket's prediction of the likelihood of Iran's Supreme Leader's succession has fallen back to 50%, with trading volume exceeding $5 million.

Gate News Report, March 6: According to data from the Polymarket website, the probability of "Iran's next Supreme Leader being Ayatollah Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei," rose to 82% at one point, currently falling back to 50%, with trading volume exceeding $5 million. Previously, Trump stated that he would not accept Khamenei's son taking over as Supreme Leader and that he would need to be personally involved in Iran's succession arrangements.

Vitalik: Prediction markets help understand the world and the near future, hoping the project can optimize market conditions.

Gate News Announcement, March 6th, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin stated that prediction markets help us better understand the world and the near future. He hopes prediction market projects will focus more on optimizing this direction, especially by developing more conditional markets.

Senator Murphy plans to introduce legislation to restrict betting on war-related prediction markets, raising regulatory concerns over insider trading profits on Polymarket

Senator Chris Murphy plans to introduce legislation to restrict public betting on prediction markets related to government military actions to address insider trading risks. Recently, traders profited before the airstrike on Iran, raising concerns. The bill will prohibit market trading related to war or political speeches, aiming to maintain market integrity, prevent the misuse of sensitive information, while preserving exceptions for financial contracts.

The probability of betting on Polymarket that "Predict.fun FDV will surpass $50 million within 1 day after launch" is 89%.

Foresight News reports that the probability of betting on Polymarket that "Predict.fun FDV will surpass 50 million USD within 1 day after launch" is 89%. The probability of surpassing 100 million USD within 1 day after launch is 72%, and the probability of surpassing 200 million USD within 1 day after launch is 44%.

WBC Japan vs. China game starts at 6:00, Polymarket is heavily favoring one side, Taiwan rallies support for the event.

2026 World Baseball Classic, the Chinese Taipei team will face Japan on March 6th, with predictions showing Japan's win probability at 91%. Fans are rallying by eating "Anti-Japanese cuisine" and hosting outdoor live streaming parties to cheer for Taiwan. Streamer Ding Te also launched activities to motivate fans to support.