1. Figma IPO Latest Pricing Process
Image: https://www.figma.com/
On July 1, 2025, Figma officially filed its S-1 registration statement with the SEC, initially setting its IPO price range at $25–$28 per share, which implied a maximum valuation of approximately $1.64 billion. With surging investor demand, the company raised this range to $30–$32 per share on July 28. The final offering price was set at $33 per share, raising approximately $1.2–$1.22 billion and bringing the fully diluted valuation close to $1.93 billion.
2. Financial Performance and Valuation Rationale
In 2024, Figma generated $749 million in revenue, up 48% year-over-year. Q1 2025 revenue was $228.2 million, with net profit of approximately $44.9 million. The company posted a gross margin as high as 91% and a net dollar retention rate (NDR) above 130%, underscoring the SaaS model’s robust profitability and strong customer retention.
Figma’s total addressable market (TAM) is estimated at $33 billion. Adobe commands $21.5 billion in revenue in this sector, which highlights the vast market opportunity. Figma is steadily extending into new business lines—including Figjam, Make, Sites, Buzz, Draw, and other AI-driven tools—which could drive future growth.
In terms of valuation, Figma’s combination of rapid growth, high retention, and substantial gross margins supports a 20–30× EV/ARR multiple, with potential peak valuation approaching or exceeding $2 billion.
3. Stock Price Outlook: Phased Forecast
In the short term, Figma’s IPO debut was exceptionally strong: shares opened around $85, soared to a high near $125 during the session, and closed at $115.50—representing a gain of more than 250%. This outpaced earlier projections and illustrates the “first-day pop” phenomenon driven by heightened market enthusiasm and limited float.
Looking at the medium term, with lock-up expirations and profit-taking risks present, some analysts anticipate that the stock could pull back to the $50–$70 range, with a valuation in the $15–$20 billion range—unless Figma demonstrates exceptionally strong business growth.
Over the long haul, if Figma successfully commercializes its AI tools, continues to expand its global enterprise client base, and consistently hits revenue targets, its valuation could climb above $20 billion, and its share price could rise to the $60–$90 range or higher.
4. Investment Recommendations and Risk Disclosures
Investment recommendations are as follows:
- Short-term traders: Appropriate for investors comfortable with volatility. Newcomers may consider making a modest investment during the first-day surge.
- Conservative investors: Consider building a position in tranches after the lock-up period, when prices stabilize in the $50–$70 range.
- Long-term holders: Focus on key metrics such as earnings releases and revenue from new AI products; suitable for a buy-and-hold approach.
Key risks include:
- Competitive pressure: Adobe, Canva, Sketch, and others are ramping up, with AI strategies evolving rapidly.
- Execution risk: The commercialization of new business lines is uncertain, and weaker-than-expected conversion rates could impact Figma’s valuation.
- Valuation bubble risk: Current valuation is at a 75× revenue multiple. Swift corrections may occur if market sentiment shifts.
Conclusion: Figma’s IPO was priced at $33 per share, valuing the company at $1.93 billion. While the stock may remain strong in the short term, a prudent valuation in the medium term is in the $50–$70 range. If Figma sustains its growth, the stock price could increase further over the long term. New investors should consider participating only after they thoroughly understand the associated risks.
