The valuation model of XRP has sparked heated discussions in the market.
Recently, a report from Valhil Capital has caused a stir in the crypto community. The study uses an innovative valuation model to project that XRP could reach astonishing price levels in the next five years, with estimates ranging from $4,813 to $9,000. Such predictions are far above the current market levels and are not solely based on payment use, but instead position XRP as a value storage asset similar to gold.
The positioning shift of XRP
The Athey & Mitchnick model used by Valhil treats XRP as an asset with investment properties, similar to how investors hold gold. As the market gradually recognizes this characteristic, the situation of XRP being locked for a long time will become more common, leading to a gradual reduction in circulating supply.
In a scenario where supply decreases and demand continues to heat up, the model predicts the potential soaring space for XRP prices. The report indicates that if 10% of global payments adopt XRPL technology and applications expand gradually, the estimated median price will reach $4,813.
Key estimation data of XRP
This report sets several core assumptions as the basis for the model:
- By 2030, the XRP ledger will process daily transaction volumes of up to $700 billion.
- The settlement speed of using XRP is maintained at the per second level.
- Assuming that the total supply of 56.5 billion XRP remains stable.
- Estimate using a 10% discount rate and a five-year implementation period.
If XRP is widely used as a store of value and accumulates to a demand level of 1 trillion dollars, the report estimates that the price could exceed 9,000 dollars; even if there is only a corresponding asset level of 100 trillion dollars, it could still potentially raise XRP to 908 dollars each.
Market uncertainties and challenges
Despite the seemingly bright prospects, XRP still faces dual challenges from regulation and competition:
- The legal status is not yet fully clarified: although the legal dispute with the SEC has ended, whether global financial institutions will adopt XRP on a large scale still depends on regulatory stability.
- Competitors are lurking: Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC), stablecoins, and emerging blockchains (such as Stellar and Quant) all aim to seize the cross-border settlement market.
Valhil also acknowledges that its model is conservative and does not account for the potential of XRP in the real estate or derivatives markets in its forecasts, which may indicate that this potential is still underestimated.
The legal battle has come to an end, and Ripple is refocusing on product development.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse stated in a post on X on June 28 that the company has decided to formally withdraw its appeal cross-application against the SEC and focus on achieving the mission of the value internet.
(Source: bgarlinghouse)
This also means that the lawsuit since 2020 is about to come to an end. Although the court rejected the request to amend the judgment in August 2024, both Ripple and the SEC are expected to withdraw the relevant litigation actions and move towards a positive resolution.
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Summary
Although predicting a price reaching thousands of dollars may seem bold, Valhil’s report highlights one point: the true potential of XRP, not just as a cross-border payment token, but as a potential candidate for a global store of value. As regulatory issues gradually get clarified and use cases increase, the next few years will be a critical period for XRP’s transformation. Whether it can truly become the cryptocurrency version of gold still needs time to verify.
