Polymarket, Kalshi Hit $150B Lifetime Volume in April

Prediction Markets See First Volume Decline After Seven-Month Rally

Polymarket and Kalshi’s combined monthly trading volume declined in April, ending a seven-month streak of record highs, according to The Block’s data. Despite the monthly decline, the two leading prediction markets reached a combined lifetime trading volume milestone of $150 billion in April. This marked the first fall-off in total sector trading activity since the platforms began experiencing explosive growth in September.

Volume Breakdown and Active Trader Decline

The April decline was driven primarily by lower activity on Polymarket’s global platform, while the firm’s U.S. subsidiary—still in rollout phase—grew alongside Kalshi. Polymarket’s active trader count dropped to approximately 643,000 in April, down from over 733,000 in March, breaking another seven-month growth streak, according to The Block’s data. This coincided with declines in U.S. dollar volumes on Polymarket and a plunge in notional volume on both platforms.

Regulatory Landscape and Market Expansion

Polymarket and Kalshi remain the leading betting markets in a sector gaining widespread attention and regulatory scrutiny. Kalshi is rapidly gaining traction in the sports betting category, which has drawn criticism from state-level regulators and gaming authorities.

Kalshi won a legal battle against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2024 to offer election-related contracts, enabling U.S. expansion. This victory also paved the way for Polymarket to reenter the U.S. market by acquiring a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange, following its earlier ban for offering unregistered event contracts. Polymarket is reportedly looking to onboard its entire global marketplace into the U.S.

Under a new administration, the CFTC has shifted to embracing prediction market experimentation, issuing guidance to foster innovation and withdrawing prior stricter guidelines on gaming contracts. The agency has filed lawsuits against several states attempting to bar prediction markets, arguing that event contracts are binary derivatives under federal jurisdiction.

Funding and Compliance Initiatives

In March, Kalshi raised capital at a $22 billion valuation. Polymarket, previously backed by NYSE parent Intercontinental Exchange, is reportedly seeking to raise at a $15 billion valuation. Both firms are actively implementing measures to prevent insider trading on their platforms, including Polymarket’s engagement of blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis for market surveillance.