BlackAndWhite123

BTC's current state is like leveraged tech stocks, still within a range of oscillation. If the war doesn't end and there's a rebound, it will be a short-term rally, but don't mistake it for a bull market.
If the US, Israel, and Iran escalate the war and the US deploys ground troops into Iran, US bond yields will soar, the dollar will weaken, and US stocks will crash.
Gold will surge due to the weakening of dollar confidence, and BTC's price will wait for a new cycle, also rising as dollar confidence collapses.
Since the market cap of US dollar stablecoins has already reached 310 billion,

The reason for the Korean stock market crash is that the conflict between the US and Iran caused oil prices to surge, which directly led to a sharp increase in the costs of Korean semiconductor and chemical factories. Korea is already a country highly dependent on imports from the Middle East. Coupled with foreign capital withdrawal from the stock market for risk aversion, this ultimately caused the Korean won to plummet and the stock market to collapse.
Looking at history, as long as a ceasefire is reached, Korea's stock market will definitely rebound strongly because of the urgent demand f

The US-Israel-Iran conflict has now escalated to the level of physical supply disruption.
Once the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, 30% of global maritime crude oil shipments will face re-pricing.
Supply ceiling: US shale oil production is struggling to increase, while OPEC+ remains committed to production cuts to stabilize the market.
Gold has already surged this round, and it's probably oil's turn now.

A second test is a high-probability event, not a bearish prediction, but a rational judgment based on historical patterns.
Key psychological levels are often broken through, just like 6000 in 2018 and 30,000 in 2022; it’s easier to find a bottom after breaking these levels.
Currently, the monthly chart has five consecutive down weeks, which is rare in history;
In March, it is highly likely to fluctuate around 60,000. If it closes lower again, the trend will become clearer.
The 60,000 level will repeatedly test the bottom and create a false sense of stabilization. When the market genera

Since DeepSeek launched last year, AI agents in the crypto space have basically become obsolete.
In the past two years, meme trading has surged, and the crypto world is increasingly resembling a pyramid scheme or cult.
After US stocks went on-chain, ➕ TraderFi listed on CEX—who's still involved in scams like fake versions? The only thing left of value in the crypto circle is BTC.
For those still dreaming of AI boosting altcoins, they may not realize: the real AI dividends have never been in exchanges.

The market crash has passed for some time, and with the New Year, it has just given the market enough time to digest the impact of the sharp decline.
From historical patterns, after a significant correction, the market usually undergoes about a one-month consolidation phase before entering the next stage of the trend.
The new round of market movement is most likely to arrive in early March, with the core trigger being the Federal Reserve's mid-March interest rate decision meeting. In the weeks before and after each meeting, the market has experienced intense volatility.
Current market expectat

Will Bitcoin go above $30,000?
As long as your perspective is only 26 months ahead, it doesn't really matter.
Using the BTC miner cost valuation model, after the halving in April 2028:
- Bottom valuation: 190,000
- Conservative valuation: 240,000
- Reasonable valuation: 380,000
- Bull market valuation: 570,000
Gold still has about 1.5% - 2% new mineral output annually.
And after the 2028 halving, BTC inflation rate will drop to 0.41%.
Bitcoin will become the most scarce asset in human history.

Currently, it feels a bit like the end of 2022.
People inside the industry are generally feeling down, even a bit hopeless.
But outside the industry, people are starting to show interest in entering the market.
Currently, Bitcoin has already been cut in half from its peak.
It may be cut in half again next.
But the further down it goes, the higher the long-term risk-to-reward ratio.
Anyway, I believe the crypto world will definitely usher in another glorious moment.

The main factors currently driving Bitcoin's rise are:
First, the expectation of interest rate cuts has been pushed back to March-April.
Second, positive progress in cryptocurrency legislation.
Apart from that, any rebounds related to news in the bear market environment are all paper tigers, such as the recent news of BlackRock announcing the purchase of UNI.

It has been falling for nearly three weeks in a row, and finally a decent rebound has arrived. Currently, the 70,000 level for Bitcoin and 2,000 for Ethereum are important points of disagreement between bulls and bears. Those who are bearish can consider continuing to short based on the situation, while those who believe the bottom has already been reached can hold. Personally, I think it's more likely that after the rebound, there will be some consolidation before further decline. Get ready to place your bets.

The $65,000 Bitcoin mentioned yesterday has already arrived. Multiple reminders to follow the trend and that it might fall further, so don't think about bottom fishing for now. The main reason for this market-wide liquidation is probably the chain reaction caused by the collapse of the entire financial market—large investors borrowing money to buy US stocks, gold, silver, and BTC. Currently, gold and US stocks are also declining, so the only option is to sell risk assets in the crypto market to plug the holes, which has caused the coin prices to spiral downward. Most small investors have alrea

Recently, the market has been declining steadily starting in the evening. Now, not only the crypto market is crashing, but other markets are also collapsing. It feels like the 312 major crash from 20 years ago. Bitcoin has broken below 70,000 and there are no signs of a rebound. The next target is around 65,000. The market has been generally poor in the first half of this year. It won't improve until after the end of May. First, protect your principal and wait for a bottom to buy in.

Today, BTC is dropping more sharply than ETH, mainly because the market has funds that believe around 2000 is the bottom for Ethereum, so this level has more concentrated support funds, making ETH feel very solid and hard to fall. Most funds believe that Bitcoin's first bottom is around 68k to 69k, so there are no funds to support the 75k to 70k range, causing Bitcoin to fall faster than Ethereum. Once Bitcoin breaks below 70,000 and breaches Ethereum's psychological support line, it will be hard to hold and may capitulate. The market shows continuous downward movement without any negative new

Many people only focus on the price of Bitcoin but ignore the underlying cost structure. The shutdown price of a mining machine represents the true cost a miner pays in the real world to mine one Bitcoin. When the price drops to this range, mining is no longer a business but a money-burning activity. Historically, every time the price approaches or falls below the shutdown price, market sentiment has been extremely pessimistic. Miners are forced to shut down, hash rates are cleared, and network difficulty adjusts. These invisible changes are often more honest than candlestick charts. The shutd

Iran has already negotiated with Trump, and the major commodity market has temporarily ended. BTC cannot go down in the short term either; after a one or two month fluctuation, it will continue to decline. The next Federal Reserve Chair, Waller, is preparing to play global blood transfusions + targeted transfusions. He aims to fix the prices of crude oil, copper, and commodities, then exempt Treasury bonds from bank leverage requirements, cancel Basel regulations, and get the Fed to agree to his non-mainstream policies. He also needs Europe and Japan to cooperate. Once any progress falls short