BTC's current state is like leveraged tech stocks, still within a range of oscillation. If the war doesn't end and there's a rebound, it will be a short-term rally, but don't mistake it for a bull market.

If the US, Israel, and Iran escalate the war and the US deploys ground troops into Iran, US bond yields will soar, the dollar will weaken, and US stocks will crash.
Gold will surge due to the weakening of dollar confidence, and BTC's price will wait for a new cycle, also rising as dollar confidence collapses.
Since the market cap of US dollar stablecoins has already reached 310 billion, once dollar confidence collapses, referencing the last bull market when dollar stablecoins were only 130 billion and BTC reached 126,000, this round of BTC bull market still has a chance to hit 250,000 to 300,000. The prerequisite is that BTC should not follow US stocks closely; it should move negatively correlated or uncorrelated with US stocks for it to take off.