WaterExpoChaos

It seems today's market doesn't belong to me..
The reversal at 69.2k is because...
Suddenly Coinbase spot entry?

Surprisingly, the blue threshold has appeared here. After checking, this wave comes from a 5% order book discrepancy.
The huge discrepancy originates from the massive spot and contract orders at 65k... (Figure 2)
I plan to wait until after the US stock market closes tonight and during the weekend to find a good entry point between 65-68...

Back then, breaking through the range above 98K VS now breaking through the range above 74K
The feeling is so similar.....

Today’s Market Overview
Today is Non-Farm Payrolls day. I’ve been messing around here at 70K for most of the day, wondering if there’s any direction to see whether the NFP will trigger a move... Let’s first look at the overall market...
Figure 1: Let’s check the liquidity situation...
The spot selling pressure from yesterday to today has persisted... Since Coinbase opened after the US stock market opened yesterday, CVD has been at -1000+ , which aligns with yesterday’s ETF net outflow of over $200 million...
Currently, the market is sideways, so before the NFP release, there’s no forward-looki

CVD is approaching a return (Figure 1). Let's see if there's a final dip here, waiting for an entry model.
OI is still about 1/3 remaining (Figure 2).
On the order book, around 70k, there is some demand for contracts and spot, but it's thin, not thick.

CVD has already returned (Figure 1). Now let's see if there's a final push, waiting for an entry model...
Open interest is about 1/3 remaining... (Figure 2)
On the order book, around 70k, there is some demand for contracts and spot, but it's thin, not thick...

The price has been compressed into an increasingly narrow range by the spot orders (65k~68k)).
Basically, any fluctuation in either direction will enter the imbalance zone.
We need spot market liquidity to push and select a direction...
Not sure if there will be action during the Asian session, if not, then wait for the US session in the evening..

Today, some people still have their golden fingers or are testing the order book depth...
One or two single prints of 500-1000 points each day...
Yesterday, there was a sharp drop, and today there's a rally online...
It's strange...

A bunch of sell orders above 68k... entering the imbalance color band zone...
Getting ready to look around 67-68k to see if there are any opportunities...

But the fee rate for this weekend's gold contract is really problematic...
Gold markets are closed on weekends, and the spot price used as a reference for the contract remains unchanged. Relying solely on the fee rate can't better anchor the price...
It also seems there’s no way to hedge against the fee rate?
And today is only Saturday; the spot reference price won't be available until early Monday... which means this high fee rate will persist until early Monday...
I don't have much experience, but based on intuition, with all these factors in place, is it likely that there will be some targe

Today’s Market Overview..
Given the current situation, the technical perspective may not have much to reference due to the influence of news.. There’s a possibility of invalidation, and what happens next may depend more on whether the situation escalates...
But let’s just watch for now..
Figure 1: From the order book depth, there is still a demand zone below here that has existed previously. Ignoring major news, looking solely at the market, this is a traditional medium-term bullish entry zone in my system..
Figure 2: Currently, the demand below 63k mainly consists of grid orders every 500 p

Today’s market...
I looked at the one-hour chart and today’s market is still very tangled...
Are there signs of this wave coming down? Yes, very obvious... Figure 1 Figure 2 But I missed the early signs because I was not awake at that time. Now I can only continue to observe...
This wave started with the news from Iran... Spot sales began to surge, initially supporting the price and maintaining some passive positions... (Figure 2)
The last straw that broke the price was Binance’s later appearance of a sell order for 300 spot holdings at 68k... As soon as it appeared, the price collapse

Today’s Market Overview (1)
Figure 1 Figure 2
Let’s start with the order book... Yesterday, spot buying continued steadily, eating away at sell orders all the way up... When facing sell orders at 68k, 68.5k, and 69k, the price faced little resistance...
However, as the price approached the truly dense supply zone above (70k), and the bullish delta was nearing 2B, it encountered resistance... (Figure 3) Ultimately, it formed a rounded top to end the move... Still consistent with yesterday’s final expectation (see the last point from yesterday)
Actually, yesterday there was an opportuni

Today, Binance spot trading is aggressively buying...