Today’s market...

I looked at the one-hour chart and today’s market is still very tangled...
Are there signs of this wave coming down? Yes, very obvious... Figure 1 Figure 2 But I missed the early signs because I was not awake at that time. Now I can only continue to observe...
This wave started with the news from Iran... Spot sales began to surge, initially supporting the price and maintaining some passive positions... (Figure 2)
The last straw that broke the price was Binance’s later appearance of a sell order for 300 spot holdings at 68k... As soon as it appeared, the price collapsed (Figure 1)
(Meanwhile, spot CVD continues to sell off downward)
Where this wave will go depends on the market’s mood,
Currently, the CVD of the impulsive buy orders from the day before, which was a reckless surge, has been wiped out. Spot CVD resets... (Figure 2)
There isn’t much resonance around 66k... This level is very uncertain... Still watching for now.
The demand zone below still shows a wave at 64-65k from the order book, and another below 63k...
64-65k is the range I am watching today... It’s also the second range mentioned in yesterday’s market analysis (see yesterday’s market analysis 3)
It might surge slightly above 65k because there is a POC at 65.5k here (Figure 3)
From the open interest (OI) perspective,
Currently, as this wave declines, OI is decreasing, with neither bulls nor bears entering heavily, mainly closing positions.
However, around 66k, OI begins to rebound, indicating new positions are entering.
And at this level, the order book imbalance band starts to appear (Figure 4), but this is a 2.5% band, corresponding to the wave of orders around 64k~65k.
There is still no real volume-driven entry model appearing. If I were to enter at 66k now, I’d have to risk a small position with a stop below 64k, which is a bit large...
So, I will continue to observe...
If it really moves above 66k, then just let it go...
After all, the US market hasn’t opened yet...
Oh right... Yesterday’s US market was also quite strange... Although ETF net inflow was 250 million, it still couldn’t withstand the selling pressure from other institutions...