XRP Price Drops 63% From All-Time High as Binance Leverage Hits Cycle Lows, Traders Eye Historical Patterns

XRP is trading at approximately $1.33 as of February 24, 2026, representing a 63% decline from its July 2025 all-time high of $3.65, while on-chain data shows Binance leverage ratios reaching cycle lows and spot trading volume increasing 40% despite sustained bearish price action.

The token has recorded approximately $1.90 billion in realized losses over a one-week period, a capitulation-level metric that historically precedes exhaustion of selling pressure, according to blockchain analytics. Technical indicators show XRP approaching a long-term demand zone between $0.85 and $0.65 that previously acted as resistance before the late 2024 rally and subsequently transformed into a multi-year accumulation range.

Derivatives data reveals futures volume rising 38.3% to $5.37 billion while open interest declined 3.7% to $2.29 billion, indicating leverage reduction even as trading activity increases. CryptoQuant data shows XRP’s Estimated Leverage Ratio on Binance has dropped sharply to approximately 0.16, with both 30-day and 50-day moving averages trending downward, suggesting speculative positioning has cooled and forced liquidations have largely run their course.

Price Action and Market Performance

XRP has recorded significant declines across all major timeframes, down 10% over the past week, 30% over the past month, and nearly 50% over the past year. The token touched a February 2026 low near $1.11, representing approximately a 70% drawdown from the cycle top, before recovering slightly to current levels.

The decline accelerated after price broke below the psychological $2 support level, which many traders had treated as a critical threshold. That breakdown triggered selling from short-term holders and pushed XRP to its early February lows. Spot trading volume reached $3.13 billion over 24 hours, up 40.4% from the previous day, indicating continued market participation despite weak price action.

Realized losses spiked to approximately $1.90 billion over one week, a metric that analysts associate with capitulation events where selling pressure becomes exhausted and weaker hands exit positions. Historical patterns suggest such loss accumulation often precedes stabilization and potential trend reversals.

Binance Leverage Ratio Signals Speculative Cooling

CryptoQuant contributor PelinayPA reported on February 23 that XRP’s Estimated Leverage Ratio on Binance has declined sharply to about 0.16, with both the 30-day and 50-day moving averages trending downward. This metric measures the ratio of open interest to exchange reserves, indicating how much leverage traders are using relative to available assets.

The decline in leverage suggests that speculative positioning has cooled significantly. Forced liquidations have largely run their course, and neither long nor short positions appear crowded. The derivatives market currently appears balanced rather than stretched, creating conditions where cascading liquidations are less likely.

Binance functions as the primary hub for XRP derivatives trading, making leverage shifts on that platform indicative of global risk appetite. A sharp drop in leverage typically signals that risky positions have been cleared across the market. The combination of declining prices and falling leverage can be constructive, as high leverage increases liquidation risk while low-leverage environments reduce forced selling pressure and create cleaner conditions for larger participants to build positions.

Technical Analysis and Key Price Levels

On daily charts, XRP is forming lower highs and lower lows, though downward momentum has shown signs of easing. Immediate support is established around $1.30, a level that has held multiple times during recent trading sessions. The next significant support zone lies between $0.85 and $0.65, a higher-time-frame demand area that acted as resistance before the late 2024 rally and subsequently turned into a multi-year accumulation range where long-term buyers previously stepped in.

On the upside, $1.41 acts as the first resistance level. A more critical barrier exists between $1.50 and $1.53, where the 30-day and 50-day moving averages cluster. Trading below both moving averages, which are sloping downward, keeps the medium-term technical bias bearish.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near oversold territory, hovering around 35, suggesting selling pressure may be approaching exhaustion. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains bearish, though the shrinking histogram suggests selling pressure is cooling. Bollinger bands are tightening, indicating low volatility conditions that historically precede sharp price movements.

Historical Patterns and Analyst Observations

Analyst Crypto Patel has highlighted historical signals on social media, noting that the current setup resembles previous cycles where deep pullbacks preceded significant recoveries. Patel observed that XRP has dropped approximately 69% and that the last time it fell this much, it subsequently surged 835%.

The comparison draws attention to XRP’s historical tendency to stage powerful recoveries after periods of extreme drawdown. While past performance does not guarantee future results, the pattern has attracted trader attention as XRP approaches technical support levels that previously marked accumulation zones.

Bitcoin Context and Broader Market Influence

XRP’s decline has occurred against a backdrop of broader cryptocurrency market weakness. Bitcoin has shifted from the high $66,000s down toward the mid-$60,000s in recent sessions, creating volatility that tends to amplify moves in altcoins.

When Bitcoin retreats, altcoins often experience amplified losses, and XRP has followed this pattern. The interplay between Bitcoin’s price action and altcoin flows remains relevant even when token-specific narratives dominate headlines, serving as a reminder that macro market factors continue to influence individual asset performance.

“Dead Zone” Conditions and Volatility Compression

XRP currently exhibits characteristics of what traders describe as a “dead zone”—a phase marked by sideways-to-down movement, contracting volatility, and fading leverage. Bollinger band tightening confirms reduced volatility, while declining leverage ratios indicate speculative disengagement.

Low volatility environments often precede sharp directional moves, though the direction remains uncertain. A move above the $1.50-$1.53 resistance cluster with rising volume could shift momentum and open the door toward $1.60, potentially triggering a fresh build-up in leverage. Conversely, failure to reclaim resistance followed by a daily close below $1.30 may lead to a slide toward $1.20.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is causing XRP’s current price decline?

XRP has declined approximately 63% from its July 2025 all-time high of $3.65, with the token currently trading near $1.33. The decline reflects broader cryptocurrency market weakness as Bitcoin retreated toward the mid-$60,000s, amplified selling after XRP broke below the psychological $2 support level, and profit-taking from short-term holders. Realized losses reached approximately $1.90 billion over one week, indicating capitulation-level selling pressure.

What does low leverage on Binance mean for XRP?

XRP’s Estimated Leverage Ratio on Binance has dropped sharply to about 0.16, reaching cycle lows. This decline indicates that speculative positioning has cooled significantly, forced liquidations have largely run their course, and neither long nor short positions appear crowded. Low-leverage environments reduce the risk of cascading liquidations and create cleaner conditions for larger participants to build positions, potentially setting the stage for more sustainable price movements.

What are the key support and resistance levels for XRP?

Immediate support is established around $1.30, a level that has held multiple times. The next significant support zone lies between $0.85 and $0.65, a higher-time-frame demand area that previously acted as resistance and turned into a multi-year accumulation range. On the upside, $1.41 acts as first resistance, with a critical barrier between $1.50 and $1.53 where the 30-day and 50-day moving averages cluster. A move above this resistance with rising volume could target $1.60, while a daily close below $1.30 may lead to a slide toward $1.20.