Odaily Planet Daily reports that Stanford Graduate School of Business professor and a16z & Meta advisor Andy Hall posted on X platform stating that his team has developed a new dataset focused on political prediction markets, liquidity, and settlement rules. The research found that the vast majority of political contracts in prediction markets lack activity, with only 1.3% of contracts having sufficient liquidity. Kalshi and Polymarket rarely list contracts with identical rules, leading to further fragmentation of liquidity.
Andy Hall proposed four improvement suggestions: first, list contracts on core issues and collaborate with independent organizations to define markets of social concern; second, pay market makers to inject initial liquidity into political markets; third, introduce AI agents to trade in areas where humans do not participate, generating price references needed by society; fourth, establish unified definitions and settlement rules across platforms. Andy Hall believes these measures will attract traders seeking to hedge political risks and turn prediction markets into the truth machines society needs.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
New Polymarket Bet Placed on Axiom Insider Trading Accusation
Gate News bot message, an individual established a fresh Polymarket wallet and allocated $5,120 to wager on the prediction that #Axiom will face insider trading accusations from @zachxbt.
GateNewsBot2h ago
Citizens Bank: Predicted market annual revenue may reach $10 billion by 2030
The latest report from Citizens Bank in the United States indicates that the prediction market’s annualized revenue has exceeded $3 billion, with an expected reach of $10 billion by 2030. The trading volume in this market continues to grow, demonstrating a trend toward transformation into a mature financial market. The participation of institutional investors and the improvement of market structure are the main driving factors. Prediction markets allow for the pricing and hedging of event risks and are gradually integrating into the mainstream financial system.
GateNewsBot5h ago
Polymarket developers release command-line interface for AI agents to access prediction markets
BlockBeats News, February 24 — Polymarket developer Suhail Kakar announced on social media, "The Polymarket CLI (Command Line Interface) has been launched — the fastest way for AI agents to access prediction markets, built with Rust. Users' agents can directly query markets, make trades, and retrieve data from the terminal."
GateNewsBot12h ago
U.S. Senator pressures CFTC to fully ban "death-related" prediction market contracts
Six Democratic U.S. Senators have written to the CFTC Chairman, urging a ban on prediction market contracts related to individual deaths, citing concerns that these contracts could lead to physical harm and national security risks. They referenced multiple cases, to which the CFTC has not yet publicly responded.
GateNewsBot15h ago
Kalshi removes the badge indicating association with the X platform due to stricter promotion rules on the platform
Kalshi has removed all badges associated with its accounts in response to new X platform regulations, aiming to strengthen oversight of gambling content. The X product manager warned that failure to disclose partnerships could result in account bans to maintain user trust.
GateNewsBot16h ago
Polymarket market betting on Flying Tulip's launch day FDV exceeding $1 billion drops to a 37% probability
Foresight News Report: On Polymarket, the probability that Flying Tulip's FDV exceeds $1 billion on its first day of launch has dropped to 37%, the probability of exceeding $1.5 billion is 7%, and the probability of exceeding $800 million is 98%. Currently, the trading volume on this prediction market exceeds $2.95 million.
GateNewsBot17h ago
