According to CryptoRank data, political-topic trading volume is the highest in the market during the first quarter of 2026, while sports-related trading makes up only a small portion. The top five assets by trading volume are all related to political events, indicating the market’s focus on political forecasting.

A Nevada judge ruled that Kalshi’s sports prediction market products have no substantive difference from gambling, extended the injunction prohibiting it from offering related services locally until the case is further considered. Regulators believe it should be subject to the state’s gambling regulations.

Gate News message, April 3, a representative from a prediction market platform, Mustafa, posted on the X platform, stating that in April the platform will provide over $5 million in liquidity subsidies for sports prediction markets.

The Australian Prime Minister announced that, starting in 2027, gambling advertisements will be strictly limited to reduce children’s exposure. The new rules ban ads from being shown during live sports broadcasts, and they also do not allow celebrity endorsements. Despite the tighter advertising restrictions, the ban has not yet been fully achieved. Meanwhile, a cryptocurrency prediction platform is facing a crackdown, traditional gambling exposure will decline, and legal developments need to be monitored.

Gate News, on April 1, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon revealed that the firm is considering offering prediction market services to clients. Dimon said that JPMorgan Chase may launch prediction market services similar to Kalshi and Polymarket in the future, but it will make it clear that it will not get involved in sports and politics, and will strictly comply with regulations related to material nonpublic information. Dimon believes that prediction markets have investment attributes in certain areas, and that participants can use their deep professional knowledge to judge that their prediction of a particular outcome is better than that of the other party.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission will consider the views of the sports leagues to assess the risks of predictive market contracts. The National Football League (NFL) requires the platform to tighten trading rules to prevent contracts that could be manipulated from being listed, in order to protect the fairness of the games. The CFTC Chair said the league has unique expertise in identifying manipulation risks.

In March 2026, the number of transactions in the prediction market is expected to exceed 192 million, with monthly active addresses rising to 865,411 and transaction volume reaching $23.89 billion, indicating rapid industry growth. Sports, crypto assets, and political events are the main sources of traffic, with users trending towards retail participation; however, regulatory pressure is increasing, and future development needs to focus on compliance frameworks.

The Washington State attorney general filed a civil lawsuit against prediction market platform Kalshi, alleging it violated state law with prediction services covering sports events and other events. Kalshi denies the alleged violations and says it is confident it will prevail. This case is one of several lawsuits it is facing.

Kalshi and Polymarket announced user restriction measures against insider trading on March 24. Bipartisan lawmakers also proposed legislative drafts prohibiting event contracts related to sports events and implementing trading restrictions on groups such as political candidates and athletes.

Polymarket will adjust its fee mechanism starting March 30, 2026, adding multiple market categories and adopting a dynamic formula to calculate new fee rates. Fees will be used to incentivize market makers to provide liquidity. Currently, only Crypto and Sports markets charge fees, while other markets remain fee-free.