The next U.S. presidential "conservative primary": JD Vance wins with 53% over Marco Rubio's 35%.

The American Conservative Union’s CPAC 2026 straw poll results are out, with Vice President JD Vance receiving 53% of the votes as the top choice for the 2028 Republican presidential candidate, followed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio with 35%.
(Background: Reports suggest Iran may officially respond to the U.S. “15-point peace plan” as soon as Friday (today); could U.S.-Iran talks be on the horizon?)
(Additional context: Polymarket predicts an “88% victory rate for the Kuomintang” in Taiwan’s 2026 county and city elections! Be cautious of trading violations against election laws.)

The CPAC 2026 conference concluded in Grapevine, Texas, with over 1,600 attendees participating in the straw poll for the next U.S. president. The final results showed current Vice President JD Vance at 53%, Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 35%, and other candidates receiving single-digit support.

In last year’s similar poll, Vance secured 61%, while Rubio only garnered 3%, a difference of 58 percentage points. This year’s gap has narrowed to 18 percentage points, indicating that Rubio’s polling is rapidly catching up.

Trump Absent, Party Divisions Emerge

This year’s CPAC featured a unique situation, as Trump was absent for the first time in ten years. Vance himself did not attend but won by a landslide. Ron DeSantis and Trump’s son Donald Trump Jr. tied for third place, each with only 2%.

Currently, the issue of war with Iran has led to a rare division within the MAGA camp, with former Congressman Matt Gaetz stating on-site that a ground invasion of Iran would make America “poorer and less safe,” sparking heated discussions on the right. In contrast, Rubio has gained significant visibility during this war, and major donors are beginning to be asked whether they prefer Vance or Rubio.

Previously, both men publicly stated they did not view each other as rivals, calling each other “teammates,” but the competitive landscape is now quite evident.

How to Interpret Polymarket Odds

Polymarket’s latest data shows that in terms of Republican nomination odds, Vance is at 37% and Rubio at 21%, a difference that aligns closely with the CPAC voting results. However, in the market for the eventual winner of the 2028 presidential election, Vance is at 18% and California Governor Gavin Newsom from the Democratic Party is at 17%, with both nearly neck and neck.