Gate News reports that the crypto Fear and Greed Index is currently in an “Extreme Fear” state, with a reading of only 11, and it has remained at low levels for 12 consecutive days. Although there was a brief rebound in mid-March, since January 28, this index has stayed subdued, reflecting investors’ highly cautious sentiment. Traders often interpret extreme fear as a buy-the-dip signal, but considering the market has been weak since the start of the year, the reliability of this signal is challenged.
However, on-chain data indicates signs of a potential market bottom. Analyst MAC_D points out that the proportion of short-term holders has fallen to 3.98%, which aligns with historical cycles where the market approached a bottom when this percentage was below 4%. Meanwhile, the share of supply controlled by long-term holders has increased, intraday trading volume has decreased, and speculative demand has waned, suggesting the market is gradually accumulating.
Bitcoin whales continue to dominate. Analyst CW8900 states that exchange whales account for over 60%, reaching a ten-year high, while retail investors’ share has dropped to its lowest point. Historical patterns show that when whale dominance peaks, a market bottom often follows. This implies that the price of Bitcoin may be quietly forming a base, and potential buying opportunities are emerging.
The disconnect between the market and traditional stocks also provides Bitcoin with alternative investment value. Researcher Axel Adler notes that Bitcoin’s short-term correlation with the S&P 500 index has fallen below zero, indicating weaker performance relative to stocks and an increased risk premium. On March 17, Bitcoin surged to $76,000 but failed to sustain the rally, showing limited retail participation and that short-term volatility is mainly driven by whales.
Overall, despite the Fear and Greed Index being extremely low and market sentiment remaining cautious, Bitcoin’s selling pressure has not significantly intensified. Meanwhile, whale accumulation behavior may present potential buying opportunities. As retail investors exit and long-term holders dominate, the market appears to be entering a potential accumulation phase, laying the groundwork for the next rally. (Cointelegraph)
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