Gate News message: Over the past four weeks, Bitcoin’s price action has continued to be repeatedly whipsawed around $66,000, largely driven by remarks from U.S. President Trump about the situation in Iran. When he released signals of moderation, risk assets rose in the short term; when his comments turned hardline, sell-offs were triggered quickly, and oil prices moved higher in tandem. In a highly uncertain environment, traders are gradually realizing that it isn’t political statements that truly determine the direction of the market, but rather energy supply and transportation data.
The current key variable comes from the Strait of Hormuz. This shipping lane accounts for about 20% of global seaborne oil transport and has been nearly at a standstill since the conflict erupted in late February. Member countries of the International Energy Agency have released more than 400 million barrels of strategic reserves to ease the supply shortfall, but this buffer is expected to run out within the next few weeks. Once reserves hit bottom, the global daily crude oil supply gap could widen to more than 10 million barrels, further boosting inflation and interest-rate expectations and exerting sustained pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Another important metric that the market has been overlooking is tanker insurance costs. Currently, the navigation premium for the Strait of Hormuz has surged from less than 1% before the war to about 7.5%, indicating that shipping risk remains elevated. Historical experience shows that only when this indicator falls back below 2% does it mean the safety of the route has recovered, giving risk assets a more solid foundation for a rebound. By comparison, policy statements are unlikely to provide the same level of certainty.
At the same time, tanker throughput has not yet recovered. Data shows that after the outbreak of the conflict, only about 21 tankers have passed through the strait, versus more than 100 per day before the war. The lag in transportation recovery indicates that the supply chain remains tight.
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin may still trade in a range in the short term and even face downside pressure. Only if tanker volumes rise noticeably, transportation risk declines, and energy prices stabilize at the same time, might the market see a rebound that is more sustained. (CoinDesk)
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Bitcoin Liquidation Levels: $19.03B Long Liquidations if BTC Falls Below $75,188
Gate News message, April 27 — According to Coinglass data, if Bitcoin falls below $75,188, cumulative long liquidations on major centralized exchanges would reach $19.03 billion.
Conversely, if BTC breaks above $82,640, cumulative short liquidations on major CEXs would reach $11.88 billion.
GateNews4m ago
Wong Li-Cheng BTC long position is in profit by over $2.7 million, with gains reaching $4.26 million over the past week
According to data monitored by Hyperinsight on April 27, 2026, after crypto trader Huang Licheng (Maji Big Brother) broke above $79,000 in Bitcoin (BTC) this morning, his series of long positions combined are showing an unrealized gain of more than $2.7 million, with his total open position size rising to $86.18 million. His cumulative profits over the past week have reached $4.26 million. As of the time this report was published, the two leveraged positions and their liquidation lines are maintaining a certain safe distance.
MarketWhisper10m ago
Bitcoin Spot ETFs Post 9 Consecutive Days of Net Inflows as Institutional Demand Strengthens
Gate News message, April 27 — Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net inflows for nine consecutive trading days, with institutional buying pressure continuing to accumulate and support prices.
Strategy has invested approximately $11 billion to increase its Bitcoin holdings so far this year. The
GateNews11m ago
This week: Fed Chair Powell’s final press conference—plain-language communication signals a shift in the policy stance
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will hold what will be his final formal press conference of his tenure this week. This article reviews the patterns of cryptocurrency market volatility before and after each major policy shift during Powell’s term (rate cuts, rate hikes, and balance sheet runoff), and analyzes the potential impact that changes in transparency may have on the liquidity of crypto assets.
GateInstantTrends18m ago
Bitcoin Spot ETFs See $824M Net Inflows Last Week, Four Consecutive Weeks of Positive Flows
Gate News message, April 27 — Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $824 million in net inflows last week (April 20-24, ET), marking the fourth consecutive week of positive flows, according to SoSoValue data.
BlackRock's IBIT led all funds with $733 million in weekly net inflows, bringing its all-time total n
GateNews1h ago
Crypto Market Surges Across Multiple Sectors; RWA Leads with 4.81% Gain, BTC Breaks $79K
Gate News message, April 27 — According to SoSoValue data, the crypto market showed broad-based gains on April 27. The RWA sector led with a 24-hour increase of 4.81%, featuring Pendle (PENDLE) up 7.39%, Centrifuge (CFG) up 7.17%, Ondo Finance (ONDO) up 5.44%, and Keeta (KTA) up 5.89%.
Major assets
GateNews1h ago
