Polymarket predicts the probability that Anthropic's 2026 valuation exceeds $500 billion has fallen to 90%.

Gate News message, on April 1, Polymarket prediction market data shows that, possibly influenced by news that OpenAI completed a $122 billion committed capital and an $852 billion post-money valuation, the probability that Anthropic’s publicly predicted valuation for 2026 would exceed $500 billion temporarily fell intraday from 93% to 90%, with a 7-day increase of 4%.

The event determination criteria are: as of 11:59 p.m. on December 31, 2026 (U.S. Eastern Time), if Anthropic achieves a publicly announced valuation of $500 billion or more, or in a private financing values the company at $500 billion or more, then the event will be determined as “yes”; otherwise, it will be determined as “no”. This valuation must be explicitly confirmed by Anthropic, or be supported by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.

Earlier, Anthropic completed a $30 billion Series G financing this February, with a post-money valuation of $38 billion. GIC, Sequoia Capital, and Temasek led the investment; D.E. Shaw Ventures, Dragoneer, Founders Fund, ICONIQ, and MGX also co-led the investment. JPMorgan, Addition, Morgan Stanley, Sequoia Capital, Temasek, and others participated.

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