Gate Daily Report (March 16): "Super Central Bank Week" Interest Rate Decisions Incoming; US Reveals Iran Conflict Resolution Timeline

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a strong rebound over the weekend, currently around $72,490 as of March 16. The “Super Central Bank Week” is approaching, with global interest rate decisions overshadowed by the Iran war shadow. U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry stated that the Iran conflict will end “in the next few weeks,” after which oil supplies will rebound and energy prices will decline. The International Energy Agency (IEA) revealed that emergency reserves of oil will soon begin flowing into the global market.

Macro Events & Crypto Hotspots

1. The Financial Times reports that this week will see the “Super Central Bank Week.” Although these central banks’ rate decisions are not expected to bring surprises, policy guidance accompanying the decisions will be closely watched due to ongoing Middle East conflicts. The four major central banks—Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan—will announce decisions on Thursday Beijing time. Additionally, rate setters from Australia, Brazil, China, Canada, Indonesia, Sweden, and Switzerland will also meet this week.

Except for possibly the Reserve Bank of Australia, other central banks are likely to keep rates unchanged. However, the Iran war increases the possibility of rate hikes later this year. The rate markets have responded hawkishly to upcoming energy price shocks; expectations of rate cuts by the Fed and Bank of England have been erased, replaced by expectations that the latter may raise rates. Expectations for the European Central Bank to hike rates this year have also increased. Since the war began, the Bank of Japan’s rate path has remained relatively unchanged.

2. U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry stated that the Iran conflict will end “in the next few weeks,” after which oil supplies will rebound and energy prices will decline. The IEA said that oil from emergency reserves will soon start flowing into the global market, with stocks from Asian and Oceanian countries immediately available, and stocks from Europe and the Americas available by the end of March. Governments have committed to releasing 271.7 million barrels of crude oil from strategic reserves, 116.6 million barrels from mandatory industry reserves, and 172.2 million barrels from American members. Of the planned release, 72% is crude oil and 28% is petroleum products.

The Financial Times reports that Trump warned that if U.S. allies do not assist in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, NATO will face a “very bad” future. “Those benefiting from the strait should help ensure nothing bad happens there,” Trump said, noting Europe’s high dependence on Gulf oil, unlike the U.S. He added, “If there is no response, or a negative response, I think it will be very bad for NATO’s future.” When asked what help he needs, Trump replied “any necessary help.” He suggested allies send minesweepers, noting Europe has many more than the U.S. Trump also hinted at the possibility of new strikes on Iran’s oil export hub Kharg Island, and its oil infrastructure.

News Highlights

1. Tether CEO: Tether AI team to release a “breakthrough achievement” this week.

2. Aave and CoW Swap release contrasting post-incident reports on $50 million DeFi transaction failure.

3. Analysis: To hold 1 million BTC by the end of the year, approximately 6,158 BTC need to be added weekly.

4. ShapeShift founder spent a total of 29.44 million USDT in the past 24 hours to buy 13,986 ETH.

5. Venus reveals progress in attack investigation: attackers took 9 months to accumulate tokens bypassing supply limits.

6. Analysis: “Super Central Bank Week” approaches, with the Iran war shadow influencing global interest rate decisions.

7. Trump warns NATO: Without effort to assist in strait navigation, a “bad” future awaits.

8. US media: The US government may announce joint escort missions for the Strait of Hormuz as early as this week.

9. Commerce Department responds to “US initiates 301 investigation on China and 16 other economies”: Has lodged protests with the US.

10. Analyst: An address receiving 7,400 ETH from Tornado is leading tonight’s CAKE and THE collateral liquidation event.

Market Trends

1. Latest Bitcoin news: $BTC rebounded strongly over the weekend, currently around $72,490, with $58.07 million in liquidation over the past 24 hours, mainly short positions.

2. US stock markets have fallen for three consecutive weeks amid prolonged Middle East conflict, negatively impacting energy prices and economic stability. As the US and Israel enter the third week of war against Iran, oil prices may continue rising, shaking market confidence. NVIDIA’s GTC conference remains the only hope. The three major US indices each declined over 1.2% weekly. S&P 500 down 0.6% on the 13th; Dow Jones down 119 points, 0.3%; Nasdaq, tech-heavy, down 0.9%.

(Source: Gate)

3. According to Gate’s BTC/USDT liquidation map, with current price at $72,580.10, if it drops to around $70,712, total long liquidation exceeds $541 million; if it rises to around $73,615, total short liquidation exceeds $149 million. Short liquidations are significantly lower than longs; it is advisable to control leverage reasonably to avoid large-scale liquidations during market swings.

(Source: Coinglass)

4. In the past 24 hours, spot inflow of $1.54 billion and outflow of $1.52 billion, net inflow of $200 million.

(Source: Coinglass)

5. In the past 24 hours, net outflows in contracts for $XAU, $DOGE, $XAG, $HYPE, $PAXG, indicating trading opportunities.

KOL Insights

Phyrex Ni (@Phyrex_Ni): “Had a happy weekend, though I didn’t buy any of the double coins I was holding because I was worried about a big move at any moment. This isn’t much related to BTC price, mainly because of concerns about liquidity during weekends and potential surprises. I was also worried that after the US hit Iran’s key export hub Kharg Island, the oil market might see a turbulent week, with fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East intensifying.”

“But just now, I saw the IEA announcement that member countries will collectively release 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves. Implementation plans have been submitted, Asia-Pacific members will start releasing immediately, and Europe and the Americas will start from late March.”

“This shows that the global oil market is extremely tense due to Middle East conflicts and the blockade of Hormuz shipping. So, IEA members are opening their reserves to inject some supply into the market, lowering oil prices and easing panic. This is the sixth and largest joint emergency release in IEA history. It should help lower oil prices for next Monday.”

“Looking at Bitcoin data, trading volume has increased somewhat today, likely due to the war. Initially worried about oil prices rising and causing a downturn, then the release from IEA pushed prices up again. Overall, the situation is quite simple: if oil prices ease, markets will improve; if oil prices stay tense, markets will face bigger trouble.”

“Next Thursday at 2 a.m., the Fed’s rate decision meeting will take place. Nothing exciting expected; no change in March, and it’s not Powell’s last meeting, so the impact won’t be too big—mostly short-term sentiment. No need to worry too much for now.”

Today’s Outlook

1. China February industrial added value (year-on-year), previous 5.20%

2. China February total retail sales of consumer goods (year-on-year), previous 0.9%

3. Canada February core CPI (year-on-year), previous 2.7%

4. Canada February CPI (year-on-year), previous 2.3%

5. US March NAHB housing market index, previous 36

6. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to lead a delegation to France for economic and trade talks with the US from March 14-17