MOVE Index surges 21%, signaling increased risk as Bitcoin and Ethereum options shift to a defensive stance

March 13 News: As macro market volatility intensifies, the demand for risk hedging in the crypto derivatives market has clearly increased. Data shows that over $2.3 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts are set to expire today, with market positions gradually shifting toward defensive strategies. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price remains around $71,500, and short-term implied volatility has pulled back from recent highs.

Derivatives market data indicates that total open interest in crypto futures has increased by about 2% in the past 24 hours, reaching $102 billion. However, funding rates are flat or slightly negative. Combined with changes in trading volume, the market generally believes that this growth in open interest is driven more by cautious short positions rather than large-scale new long positions.

In terms of options structure, Bitcoin options have a notional value of approximately $1.93 billion, totaling 26,948 contracts. The put-to-call ratio is 0.97, close to balanced but slightly defensive. The current maximum risk price level is around $69,000, slightly below the spot price.

In contrast, Ethereum options show a more pronounced defensive signal. Data indicates that the put-to-call ratio has risen to 1.20, with a notional value of $394 million and a total of 186,732 contracts. The current maximum risk point is near $2,000, about 5% below the current price. This structure suggests that the market prefers risk hedging through options rather than betting on a clear upward move.

Greeks.live analysts note that implied volatility for major maturities has already declined significantly. The monthly volatility risk premium (VRP) has dropped rapidly from +2% to -9% in a short period. A negative VRP typically indicates that traders expect future market volatility to be lower than current levels.

Notably, in one of the world’s largest crypto options markets, about $800 million in open contracts are concentrated at the $20,000 Bitcoin put option strike price. Industry insiders point out that such deep out-of-the-money puts are often sold by traders to collect premiums, as the probability of reaching that price level is relatively low.

On the macro front, signals of tension are also evident. The price of international crude oil is approaching $100 per barrel again, and volatility in the U.S. bond market has surged. The MOVE index, which measures 30-day expected volatility of U.S. Treasuries, jumped 21% on March 12 to 95.30 points. Since U.S. Treasuries are viewed as a key benchmark for global financial pricing, rising volatility usually indicates tightening financial conditions and potential pressure on risk assets.

Despite increasing uncertainty in traditional markets, implied volatility indices for Bitcoin and Ethereum remain relatively stable. This cross-asset volatility divergence suggests that derivatives traders have not fully priced in macro risks into the crypto markets. However, as the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve approaches on March 17-18, continued increases in bond market volatility could further influence market sentiment and crypto position structures.