CICC: The risk of a 'stagflation-like' situation in the U.S. has further increased and been validated

Gate News Report, March 10 — China International Capital Corporation (CICC) stated in its 2026 macroeconomic outlook report that the biggest risk facing the U.S. economy is a “stagflation-like” scenario (a situation where economic growth slows while inflation persists). Recent developments indicate that this assessment is gradually being validated and further reinforced.

Regarding inflation, the conflict between the U.S. and Iran has driven up oil prices, and the drivers of inflation are increasingly shifting toward structural factors, which may lead to persistent inflationary stickiness. On the employment front, the substitution effect of AI on white-collar jobs is beginning to show, dampening employment expansion momentum. In terms of financial risks, risks in private credit (loans provided by non-bank institutions to enterprises) are rising. Once the industry enters a cleanup phase, financial conditions could tighten, potentially dragging on economic growth.

On the policy front, the Federal Reserve faces a dilemma. CICC believes that the timing of interest rate cuts may be delayed until the second half of the year. The stimulative effect of tax cuts has been partially offset by tariff increases and rising household savings, so the actual boost may be lower than expected. Against this backdrop, the U.S. economy is expected to slow down, risk premiums in capital markets (the extra returns demanded by investors) are trending upward, and capital allocation may shift from chasing yields to more risk-averse strategies.