Trump announces on Truth Social that he will direct the Department of Defense to release government files related to aliens and UFOs, causing the probability on the Polymarket related markets to rise.
(Current market status: Do aliens really exist? British director reveals Trump to disclose UFO truth in July, do you believe it?)
(Current market status: Bitcoin rebounds to $60,000, sleeping whales are accumulating, Japan’s MicroStrategy Metaplanet: embracing BTC with unchanged goals)
Humans may not be alone in the universe.
On February 14, former U.S. President Obama participated in a quick Q&A on Brian Tyler Cohen’s podcast. When asked, “Are aliens real?” Obama replied:
“They are, but I haven’t seen them. They’re not hidden in Area 51. No underground facilities, unless there’s a huge conspiracy, and they’ve kept it from even the President.”
This exchange quickly went viral. The next day, Obama clarified on Instagram: “Statistically, given the vastness of the universe, the probability of other life forms existing is high. But the distances between star systems are so great that the chances of us being visited by aliens are very low. During my presidency, I saw no evidence of contact with extraterrestrials.”
If the story ended here, it would just be an interesting presidential tidbit… but Trump saw an opportunity.
On February 19, aboard Air Force One, Trump told reporters that Obama leaked “classified information,” making a big mistake. When asked whether he himself believes in the existence of aliens, Trump replied, “I don’t know if they’re real or fake.”
But a few hours later, he posted on Truth Social announcing: “Based on the tremendous interest shown by the public, I will instruct the Secretary of Defense and other relevant agencies to begin identifying and releasing government files related to aliens, extraterrestrial life, Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP), and Unidentified Flying Objects (UFO).”
A quick podcast Q&A, after five days of political reactions, turned into a presidential directive.
What exactly is in the Pentagon’s files?
Trump’s order did not include a specific timeline, did not specify which agencies must produce what documents, and was not an official executive order. It’s a Truth Social post, not a legal document.
But the background is worth reviewing. The Pentagon’s All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) in its 2024 annual report stated that, as of that year, it received 1,652 UAP reports, including 757 new cases. The conclusion was that “there is no evidence” supporting contact between the U.S. government and alien life, and most sightings can be attributed to common objects: balloons, birds, drones, aircraft.
In September 2025, the House Oversight Committee held a UAP hearing. Military whistleblowers shared new video evidence, including footage of unidentified flying objects filmed off the coast of Yemen in October 2024. Navy senior petty officer Alexandro Wiggins testified directly: “What we saw changed our lives, changed the way we think about everything.”
Meanwhile, the FY 2026 National Defense Authorization Act required the Pentagon to brief Congress on UAP intercepts since 2004. The UAP Disclosure Act proposed establishing a seven-year declassification window. In other words, even if Trump hadn’t posted that Truth Social message, systemic information release pressures already existed.
The alien betting market on Polymarket
For crypto users, the most interesting part of this story might not be the aliens themselves, but Polymarket. “Will the U.S. confirm the existence of aliens before 2027?” The YES probability for this event rose above 20% after Trump’s announcement, with trading volume surpassing $4 million.
The criteria are: if the U.S. President, any cabinet member, any Joint Chiefs of Staff member, or any U.S. federal agency explicitly states the existence of extraterrestrial life or technology before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 31, 2026, the market will settle as “Yes.” Otherwise, it will settle as “No.”
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