$13.0 billion exit stalls: private credit “run” intensifies, on-chain tokenization risks also expand in parallel

Gate News message: In 2026, the private credit market is facing liquidity pressure. Investors this quarter have tried to redeem about $13 billion in funds, but actual redemptions are less than half, and a situation similar to a “bank run” is gradually emerging. Including BlackRock, Apollo, Ares, Blackstone, and other institutions, multiple firms have already launched redemption restriction mechanisms, keeping the quarterly withdrawal ratio at around 5%. Some funds have even increased their upper limits or used their own capital to meet liquidity needs.

With demand being released in a concentrated way, the redemption ratio is far exceeding the restriction threshold. For example, in some funds, the proportion of redemption requests reaches 11% to 14%, but the funds actually returned are not even half—about $4.6 billion remains stuck. Meanwhile, some products have already paused redemptions, further intensifying market tension.

The core of the problem lies in the asset structure. Private credit funds mainly hold loan assets with relatively poor liquidity. When the economic environment tightens and default risk rises, it becomes difficult to liquidate them in a timely manner. Data show that as of early 2026, the default rate in private credit has risen to 5.8%, hitting a record high. Institutional forecasts suggest it may rise to 8% or even higher in the future.

Worth noting is that blockchain is being introduced into this space. Some institutions embed tokenized private credit products into DeFi systems, trying to improve liquidity and returns. But the reality shows that tokenization only accelerates the speed at which funds enter and the pace of leverage cycles; it does not improve the underlying asset liquidity shortcomings. Instead, it may also amplify risks during market downturn phases.

In addition, macro pressure cannot be ignored either. Rising energy prices, employment-structure changes triggered by artificial intelligence, and persistent inflation all deal a blow to borrowers’ ability to repay. Jerome Powell has defined the current situation as “adjustment,” but market surveys show that most fund managers believe private credit could become the source of the next round of systemic risk.

Under the dual effects of concentrated capital withdrawal and pressure on asset quality, the stability of the private credit market is being tested, and the potential transmission risk it poses to the crypto market and on-chain credit structures is also worth watching.