Is Quantum Computing Becoming a Real Threat to Bitcoin’s Security?

Bitcoin’s Security Model Faces Uncharted Risks

(Source: David Duong, CFA)

David Duong, Global Head of Institutional Research at Coinbase, recently cautioned that accelerating advances in quantum computing could push Bitcoin’s long-standing security foundation into a new risk frontier. The main concern isn’t the likelihood of an imminent attack, but rather that the market may be significantly underpricing this emerging threat compared to the speed of technological progress.

Duong notes that quantum computing’s impact on Bitcoin has evolved from a theoretical concern to a structural risk factor.

A Significant Portion of Bitcoin Supply Is Now Exposed

Duong highlights that roughly one-third of all Bitcoin supply is associated with wallet outputs that are publicly visible. Should quantum computing capabilities reach sufficient maturity, these addresses could, in theory, become targets for brute-force attacks, exposing assets to theft. He stresses that this is not a prediction of near-term attacks, but a signal to investors that the risk landscape has fundamentally shifted.

Quantum Computing Is Nascent, but Its Impact Is Profound

Quantum computers remain in the experimental and development phase. Unlike classical computers, they leverage quantum mechanics to process information. Once quantum systems achieve sufficient scale and stability, current cryptographic defenses may no longer suffice. Academic opinions differ on the timeline for when quantum computers could break Bitcoin’s encryption, with some researchers warning that a genuine threat could materialize within four to five years. This perspective is increasingly gaining traction among traditional financial institutions.

Two Core Security Challenges

Technically, Bitcoin’s security relies on two primary cryptographic pillars:

• The Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA), which authorizes transactions and ensures only private key holders can initiate transfers;
• The SHA-256 hash function, which underpins the proof-of-work mechanism.

Duong identifies two categories of quantum-related risk. The first is economic: if quantum computers dramatically boost mining efficiency, they could disrupt network incentives. For now, hardware limitations make this a secondary concern. The central challenge is the integrity of digital signatures.

Institutions Are Taking Quantum Risks Seriously

BlackRock has explicitly listed quantum computing as a potential risk factor in its latest iShares Bitcoin Trust prospectus, signaling that this issue has moved beyond technical circles and into mainstream investment considerations.

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Conclusion

While quantum computing has yet to fully mature, Bitcoin is likely to maintain its current security posture in the short term. However, this does not mean the risks can be dismissed. As technological advances outpace market expectations, the security assumptions underlying crypto assets are under renewed scrutiny. For Bitcoin, the real challenge extends beyond price volatility—it’s about proactively addressing cryptographic upgrade needs to preserve its core credibility as a decentralized value network in the next era of technology.