週末伊朗雖然傳出很多新聞，但目前美國和以色列還沒有動手，所以幣市在週末相對平靜，BTC 依然在 9 萬美元上面掙扎，但因為目前日線都處於下行趨勢，加上世界局勢不太明朗，所以市場情緒不足以支撐突破。這週美國雖然會公布 CPI 等重點經濟數據，但目前市場關注點還是川普的行動，所以這週市場預計會以消息驅動為主，特別是中東和伊朗的局勢變化。
而根據 CryptoQuant 最新數據顯示，幣安的比特幣衍生品市場在過去一週出現明顯的收縮訊號，BTC 持倉量（OI）的 7 日變化率從 1 月 8 日的 +9% 驟降至 11 日的 -2%，降幅達 11% 。這項轉變反映出交易者正大舉平倉，特別是多頭部位可能正因主動離場或強制清算而減少。與此同時，累積成交量 Delta（CVD）自 1 月 8 日起持續走低，顯示市場主動賣盤壓力增強。由於 CVD 的跌勢與持倉量收縮同步發生，進一步證實了市場正經歷多頭撤離與賣方力道回升的過程。
在資金流向方面，幣安的大額資金流入（30 天滾動總額）出現微幅增長，從 30 億美元上升至 36 億美元，展現出初步的派發跡象，此種增長模式與去年 10 月初的情況高度相似，歷史上這類鯨魚活動的增加，往往預示著市場即將進入短期獲利了結階段。儘管目前的波動尚未達到劇烈噴發的程度，但持倉量下降與鯨魚向交易所注資的組合訊號，暗示市場情緒已趨於謹慎，投資者應密切關注後續可能出現的分配行為與價格回調風險。
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