CME 的 Fed Watch 工具顯示，美聯儲在 4 月維持利率不變的機率為 99.5%；而 6 月的類似預測也顯示利率將維持不變的可能性為 98%，降息或升息的機率極低。

凱文·沃什（Kevin Warsh），被提名為聯邦準備理事會（Fed）主席，已披露他在各種加密貨幣計畫中的投資，包括 Solana 與 Compound。專家認為，他很可能在確認聽證會之前，透過聚焦數位資產的基金間接投資。

Kevin Warsh，聯準會主席提名人，已披露其對各類加密貨幣基礎設施專案的早期投資，包括 DeFi 與第二層（layer-2）網路。他的投資組合規模小且流動性低，顯示其更像是間接接觸風險投資，而非直接交易資產。

Gate News message, March 26: CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) "Fed Watch" tool data shows: The probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25bp in April is 5.2%, with a 94.8% probability of maintaining rates unchanged. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively raising rates by 25bp through June is 11.7%, with a 0.4% probability of cumulatively raising rates by 50bp, and an 87.9% probability of maintaining rates unchanged.

Gate News reports that on March 25, CME "Fed Watch" data shows: the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points in April is 9.3%, with a 90.7% probability of maintaining rates unchanged. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively raising rates by 25 basis points through June is 17.1%, with an 80.2% probability of maintaining rates unchanged.

Gate News reports that on March 24, according to CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points in April is 7.2%, with a 92.8% probability of keeping rates unchanged. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively raising rates by 25 basis points by June is 9.1%, with a 0.2% probability of cumulatively raising rates by 50 basis points, and a 90.7% probability of keeping rates unchanged.

Gate News message, March 23: CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) "Fed Watch" tool data shows: The probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25bp in April is 12.4%, with a 87.6% probability of keeping rates unchanged. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively raising rates by 25bp through June is 21.9%, with a 1.6% probability of cumulatively raising rates by 50bp, and a 76.5% probability of keeping rates unchanged.

3月19日，比特币回落至70,000美元，以太坊跌至2,160美元。美联储维持利率不变，油价上涨，伊朗袭击海湾能源设施，推动原油和天然气价格暴涨。加密市场强平头寸近6亿美元，多数为多头，市场期货未平仓合约下降，主流币资金费率转负。

美國2月PPI年率為3.4%，高於預期的2.9%，創2022年以來新高，分析師指出此數據未受近期地緣政治事件影響，導致交易員下調對美聯儲2026年降息的押注。

Bitcoin's upward momentum weakened after touching $75,000, with market concerns about a near-term peak. Despite institutional accumulation, total positions rose to $5.8 billion, but prices face macro uncertainty pressures. Bitcoin ETF inflows exceeding $1.5 billion support the price. Market focus is on the Federal Reserve meeting and geopolitical situation, which may affect short-term trends.