Emilyvuong

🔴🔴🔴Live: The trilateral negotiations between the US, Iran, and Pakistan have just officially begun in Pakistan.
The US delegation includes JD Vance, Jared Kushner, and Steve Witkoff.
The Iranian delegation includes Foreign Minister Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf.

📍March CPI is temporarily stable despite sharp increases in energy prices
📌Specific details of the March CPI headline:
+3.3% YoY (below the 3.4% forecast, up from 2.4%)
+0.9% MoM (below the 1.0% forecast, higher than 0.3% last month)
-> The strongest MoM increase since 06/2022
📌Core CPI:
+2.6% YoY (below the 2.7% forecast, up from 2.5%)
+0.2% MoM (below the 0.3% forecast, same as last month)
📌 Main driver from energy
- Energy +10.9% MoM
- Gasoline +21.2% MoM (highest since 1967)
- Fuel oil +30.7% MoM
-> Gasoline prices contribute about 2/3 of the CPI increase
Core

🟡 US GDP for Q4 continues to be revised downward to +0.5%
📌 Q4 GDP continues to be adjusted down to +0.5% QoQ (annualized), from +0.7% previously and much lower than the +4.4% figure of Q3.
📌 The growth structure remains unchanged: the private sector (goods and services) remains the main pillar, while the public sector drags down growth. The federal government contributes -0.96 percentage points to GDP. Completely opposite to Bidenomics
📌 The main components after adjustment:
🔸 Consumer spending (PCE): +1.9% (unchanged)
🔸 Private investment: +1.5% (from +1.6%)
🔸 Housing: -1.7% (from -0.

⚡️BTC is facing the choice to break the price channel after 2 months of sideways movement in the support zone.
Will we witness a strong price surge in this Q2?

📍February PCE inflation meets expectations
📌 Year-over-year (YoY):
- Headline PCE: +2.8% - in line with forecasts, unchanged
- Core PCE: +3.0% - in line with forecasts, down from 3.1%
-> Lowest since December 2025
📌 Month-over-month (MoM):
- Headline PCE: +0.4% - in line with forecasts, higher than 0.3% last month
- Core PCE: +0.4% - in line with forecasts, unchanged
-> Returns to highest level since February 2025
📌 This increase is mainly driven by non-durable goods, with a sharp decline in services inflation.
📌 Consumer spending +$103.2B. Americans are starting to cut back on non-essent

📍Trump begins to tighten NATO after Iran tensions
📌Trump and Marco Rubio met with Mark Rutte - NATO Secretary General
- Trump said "very disappointed" with NATO allies
- Rutte acknowledged NATO countries will have to contribute more
📌According to WSJ, Trump is considering sanctions against NATO countries that do not support the US in the Iran conflict:
- Reducing US troops in countries considered "not supporting" the US
- Reallocating forces to countries supporting the US/Israel
📌At that moment, Spain announced the reopening of its embassy in Iran. Clearly, NATO is no longer

📍FOMC Minutes: Fed keeps interest rates, continues to wait for data
In the FOMC Minutes, the Fed announced maintaining the interest rate at 3.5%-3.75%. The reasons:
- Inflation remains above target
- The labor market is beginning to slow down, businesses will face pressure from AI
- Risks from energy prices and geopolitical issues
- Risks from the private credit sector.
📌 The Fed's policy direction:
- The Fed leans toward keeping interest rates high for longer
- May cut interest rates once more by the end of 2026
- Not ruling out the possibility of raising rates again if in

💥Money Market & Cash-like ETFs (The 3-month average) has the highest inflow in history. It has now far surpassed the Covid period of 2020.
The whole world is shifting back to cash. Was Berkshire Hathaway right?

📍Money is starting to flow back into crypto
Crypto funds recorded approximately +$200M inflows in the past week — marking the 4th week of growth in the last 5 weeks.
The current scale of capital flows is still quite small, only around ~$0.2B compared to $3B–$6B/week previously.

📍Meta unveils a new AI model: Muse Spark
This is the first model from Meta Superintelligence Labs of Meta Platforms. Muse Spark was released after the Llama 4 model failed to meet expectations.
Muse Spark will be gradually integrated into: Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, Messenger, and kính Ray-Ban Meta Smart Glasses.
Meta is expected to spend approximately $135B on AI infrastructure in 2026.

🔥NYT believes that Satoshi Nakamoto is Adam Back.
He is the person who created Hashcash – a spam email countermeasure that requires computers to burn computational resources – which is the foundation of PoW (Proof-of-Work).
In Satoshi's whitepaper, Hashcash is cited directly.
Adam Back is also one of the very few people Satoshi contacted via email before Bitcoin was launched.
In 2014, after the Mt. Gox collapse, Adam founded Blockstream – a company developing #Bitcoin infrastructure, focusing on sidechains, Lightning, and scalability solutions. This is one of the organizations with the greate

Iran claims to have "forced" the U.S. to accept a 10-point plan, including:
1. Commitment not to attack each other
2. Recognition of Iran's control over Hormuz
3. Acceptance of Iran's uranium enrichment
4. Lifting all sanctions on Iran
5. Removing secondary sanctions
6. Repealing UN Security Council resolutions
7. Repealing resolutions from the IAEA Board of Governors
8. The U.S. must compensate Iran
9. Withdraw U.S. combat forces from the region
10. Cease all conflicts, including Lebanon
Trump believes these demands are "feasible."
These 10 demands are even more than just claims; even if sign

📌 Daily trading volume of gold reaches $361B - 3 times the same period in 2021:
- OTC (London): ~$200–250B
- Futures (COMEX): ~$80–120B
- ETFs and other channels: ~$10–30B
📌Compared to other markets:
- US Treasury Bills: ~$100B–$150B/day (just T-bills alone, not including the entire Treasury market)
- EUR/GBP: ~$50B–$80B/day
- Dow Jones (equity underlying): ~$30B–$60B/day
📌 Daily trading volume driven by central bank demand of approximately 1000+ tons/year, derivatives see strong growth (hedging + leverage) and OTC liquidity expansion (most demand also from central banks).

Trump threatens to blow up everything in Iran starting tomorrow.
Probably the same old script, somewhere in the middle of the week Trump will TACO declare victory or "have reached a near agreement."

📍The Ethereum Foundation just staked an additional $46.64M ETH
📌 The total ETH staked by EF is $96.59M. EF or Vitalik selling is often a sign of a local top. Does this move indicate a mid-term bottom for #ETH?