Simonon

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A take on VCs, from a VC:
Most crypto VCs will not survive the next 3 years. And honestly, good riddance.
This industry has matured more in the last 12 months than in the previous decade. Real regulation. Real institutional adoption. Real revenue-generating products. Real founders building real businesses.
And yet most VCs in this space still operate like it's 2021. Only invest when they get ridiculous discounts, slap a logo on an announcement tweet, ghost the founder, wait for TGE and unlocks, dump on retail, repeat.
Zero conviction and zero value add. Many such cases.
Good thing is that this
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Unpopular opinion:
Crypto will outperform AI from here.
AI is the consensus trade by now. Almost every single dollar today flows into it at peak hype and absurd valuations.
At the same time, crypto is being priced like it's going extinct, while its fundamentals look stronger than they ever have.
Without a doubt, both are amazing technological revolutions that are here to stay. It's just that the best returns always come from the trade that feels wrong, not the one that feels obvious.
The crowd is rarely wrong about the what.
But it's almost always wrong about the when.
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Who the hell funneled $750B through Meteora last week lol
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The next 100x won't go to the person who found it first.
It'll go to the person who held it longest.
And that's why most of you will miss it.
Again.
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News from the past few days:
Iran reportedly accepting BTC payments for transit through Hormuz
France requiring individuals with over €5k in crypto holdings to report to tax authorities
Germany discussing restrictions on travel for military-age men
The world is getting more irrational, and governments are responding by pulling stronger and stronger levers.
At this point, it becomes increasingly irresponsible NOT to have exposure to crypto x privacy as a hedge against declining freedom.
ZODL
BTC-0,11%
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Collector fundamentals vs $CARDS chart.
Not sure I've ever seen an opportunity in crypto this obvious.
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Since the Iran war started:
ETH up 17%
BTC up 9%
SP500 down -0.5%
Gold down -10%
The asset class most people gave up on has not only decorrelated, but also started outperforming.
Guess what comes next.
ETH-0,11%
BTC-0,11%
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Remember when I called Aster the insider ponzi it turned out to be?
Remember all the cabal accounts and KOLs going after me while shilling it to you for exit liquidity?
Well, Aster TVL down -67%, daily fees down -90%, $ASTER down -71%.
And based on current traction vs FDV, looks like it can still go infinitely lower.
Ponzi copycats are dead.
Long live Hyperliquid.
ASTER0,48%
HYPE0,79%
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Your dead shitcoins vs the altcoin they told you not to worry about:
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The best communities in crypto were never incentivized. They never needed to be.
I know most of you hate hearing this, but airdrops were one of the dumbest things this industry ever normalized. Billions of dollars spent to bribe people into clicking buttons they never would have clicked otherwise, just for them to dump the token and never come back.
And don't come at me with Hyperliquid. Absolute exception. One that only worked because @chameleon_jeff built a product people genuinely want to use, one that prints revenue with or without an airdrop. Take the airdrop away and Hyperliquid still wi
HYPE0,79%
AIRDROP2,98%
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Wanting to be liked is the most expensive habit in business. It makes you say yes when you should say no, hire for comfort instead of competence, and avoid the hard conversations that actually move things forward.
The best founders I know either didn’t ever have that weakness or killed it early in their career.
The rest stays stuck because they’re too busy trying to please everyone.
I’ll never understand why anyone cares about the opinions of people who are holding them back anyway.
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Remember when I said 1.5 years ago that memecoins were the worst thing to happen to this industry, and everyone called me stupid for it?
Well, guess I was right.
We burned over 30M people. Most of them lost everything and won’t come back, ever.
We’ve got some work to do.
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Everyone loves to cry about how they would’ve been a multi-millionaire by now if they had just bought Facebook, Google or Airbnb in the mid 2000s.
Cool.
Crypto is literally giving you that exact same chance right now. A new financial system being built from the ground up. Most assets-90% below highs. Fundamentals stronger than ever. Institutions racing on who can adopt it the fastest.
And what are you doing?
Sitting on the sidelines doing the exact same thing people did when Facebook was “a website for college kids” and Airbnb was “strangers on air mattresses.”
Doubting and waiting for confir
BTC-0,11%
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Unpopular opinion:
Most likely we are already in a bull run, but it won't ever feel like a bull run again.
Cycles are dead. There won't be a 3-month mania anymore where everything 100x's and your barber asks you about altcoins.
It'll be stablecoin volume quietly doubling. RWA TVL hitting $100B without a single CT thread going viral about it. Crypto companies posting actual earnings. Boring products serving real people in real markets.
It will be slow and hardly exciting for most.
But it will be steady, sustainable and it will be compounding long-term.
Most of you will miss it because of your
RWA1,53%
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Seeing crypto natives leave the industry after getting everything they wished for over the last decade is honestly pathetic.
Pretending to revolutionize finance while everything they ever actually wanted was playing online casino.
The best thing that has happened to this industry is that these losers are leaving while we're replacing them with smart money and multi-billion dollar institutions that bring the right mindset.
Crypto as the Wild West we've been used to over the last 10-15 years is dead. Just accept it.
Crypto as the revolution to bring 24/7 finance onchain, making all kinds of asse
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So after the MetaDAO raise that everyone was talking about, P2P did their TGE yesterday which was, after all unsurprisingly, underwhelming.
My thoughts on this are that ironically, all the drama around the Polymarket bet on their own sale might actually be one of the bigger opportunities out there for many of you right now.
I'm not going to defend it. The Polymarket bet by the team was a mistake. They admitted it and offered full refunds to anyone who didn't want to participate anymore because of it. Almost nobody took them up on that offer, which speaks for itself.
Despite all of that, they s
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If you never really fucked up, then you never really tried.
The only thing blocking you from success is you.
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There aren’t many charts that show this level of pmf, and the kind of hypergrowth that comes with it.
We’ve seen it with stablecoins, prediction markets, perp DEXs, lauchpads, crypto credit cards…and now:
onchain collectible platforms.
Across major players like @Collector_Crypt, @Beezie, @Courtyard_io and @phygitals, collectors have already spent close to $1B (!!) on digital pack experiences alone. And that doesn’t even include the long tail of 15–20 new platforms now trying to follow in the footsteps of the early leaders, continuing to pop up as we speak.
What these top platforms have achieve
PERP-4,31%
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If you’re a founder and frustrated about the current fundraising environment, just remember:
OpenAI raised $122 BILLION while losing the race to Anthropic.
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This felt like the final confirmation of something I’ve been preaching in this space for a while now:
Infra is dead, long live applications.
Anyone still chasing new ecosystems or shiny L1 tokens is basically stuck in 2020/2021 - and the bad news for those is, those days aren’t coming back.
As it should be, applications and real use cases have taken over and now account for 90%+ of industry revenue. That’s where value accrues, not at the underlying chain layer.
This doesn’t mean every app is undervalued, but it does mean most L1s, and especially L2s, are still massively overvalued, even after
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