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#我在Gate广场过新年 The crypto market evaporated hundreds of billions of dollars! How powerful is Trump's "Iran card"?
It dropped again. When I opened the trading app today, I guess many people felt a chill. Bitcoin fell below $65,000, Ethereum also lost the $1,900 mark, and other coins are in a sea of red, with Solana dropping over 9%.
Coinglass shows that in the past 24 hours, the entire network's futures contracts liquidated $465 million, taking 136,700 traders along for the ride. Some jokingly say, this isn't just a dive, it's a "jump off a building."
The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies evaporated over $100 billion in a single day. The main culprits are those familiar two: geopolitical tensions and tariffs.
Foreign media reports that Trump may take action against Iran in the coming days. It is said he has already told advisors he favors a "preliminary strike" first, with larger actions possible if that doesn't work. Once this news broke, market nerves immediately tightened.
Meanwhile, U.S. tariff policies are also causing panic. The Supreme Court recently ruled that Trump's previous large-scale tariffs were illegal, and Trump quickly announced a new move—imposing a 15% import tariff on global goods for 150 days. This angered the EU, which held an emergency meeting to assess the situation and may even suspend trade agreements with the U.S.
India, which was planning to send a delegation to Washington for trade talks, has also temporarily postponed.
With the macro environment in such chaos, risk assets are naturally the first to suffer. U.S. stock index futures are also falling, with Nasdaq futures down nearly 1%.
Some analysts say the market is very fragile right now, and everyone is watching the $60,000 support level closely. If $65,000 can't hold, then $60,000 will really come into view. On the upside, it needs to reach $70,000 to reverse the current pessimism.
Thinking back to November last year when Trump just won the election, the market was euphoric, expecting loose policies to come, and Bitcoin surged to a record high of $126,000. Who would have thought that just a few months later, the scene changed dramatically? From the high point, the entire crypto market's value has evaporated over $2 trillion. Truly, as the saying goes: the night in the crypto world is especially long.
Hope everyone’s positions are still safe tomorrow morning.

#我在Gate广场过新年 Crypto market alarm at maximum panic!
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index plummeted to 9, remaining in the extreme fear zone of 0-10 for 12 consecutive days, plunging the market into a deep panic abyss! On one side, retail investors are panic selling and getting liquidated across the network; on the other side, smart money is quietly accumulating, intensifying the battle between bulls and bears.
The countdown to Trump's tariff nuclear bomb continues, while Vitalik continues to dump, and mysterious whales are heavily long at $67,908—are we facing doomsday or the night before sudden wealth?
Institutions fleeing vs. whales accumulating:
On-chain data exposes lies
- Miner capitulation signals confirmed: Major mining company Bitdeer has completed extreme liquidation, with its own BTC holdings dropping to zero, selling all newly mined Bitcoin; the net selling volume of miners across the network reaches 2180 coins/day, the highest since October 2024, miners selling coins to pay electricity bills—are we at a historic bottom or a prelude to collapse?
- Contrarian whale attack: Address pension-usdt.eth reopens long positions, heavily betting on BTC rising at an average price of $67,908, with a single buy-in exceeding 1200 coins, equivalent to $815 million; adding to positions amid extreme panic—is this foresight or moths to the flame?
Policy nuclear bomb countdown: 24 hours
Trump officially signs the tariff upgrade order, with global import tariffs soaring from 10% to 15%, effective from 00:01 on February 24!
Expectations of tightening global liquidity heat up, US stock volatility jumps 32%, and the crypto market is unlikely to escape the impact.
The Middle East situation adds new variables, with fierce White House hawk-dove battles, rising geopolitical risk premiums, and the ultimate test for BTC as digital gold narrative.
On-chain dark battles: whales awakening, popular tokens crashing
- Solana whale activity: A dormant address for 5 months withdrew 50,000 SOL from exchanges and immediately staked them, with a market cap of about $10.8 million—big moves in the ecosystem coming?
- PUMP bloodbath: whales sold 3.75 billion PUMP tokens at an average price of $0.00214, losing $6.98 million; project team simultaneously sold 4.96 billion tokens, cashing out over $10.5 million, completely collapsing the fund.
- Vitalik continues to dump: sold 7,386 ETH this month, another 428.57 ETH today for 850,200 GHO, totaling about $15.51 million in realized gains, ETH support below is under severe pressure.
Data bombs: $70,000 becomes a graveyard for longs and shorts
- Liquidation storm warning: BTC holding steady at $70,000 will instantly trigger $791 million in short liquidations, epic short squeeze imminent; in the past 24 hours, total liquidations reached $84.459 million, with longs at $30.311 million and shorts at $54.147 million.
- Abnormal capital flow: In the past 7 days, exchanges net inflow of 3104 BTC and 5145 ETH, totaling $472 million—whales depositing coins in preparation—is this a dump or a pump?
- Downside risk warning: Quantitative models show a 73% probability that BTC will reach $55,000 within the year, indicating extreme market conditions are still ongoing.
Market glimmers: regulatory and ecological positive signals
- Ripple major statement: CEO states that the CLARITY Act has a 90% chance of passing Congress this week, and regulatory implementation could trigger XRP market rally.
- Aave V4 upgrade: V3 and V4 will run in parallel for a long time, with gradually relaxed limits, ushering in a new era for DeFi giants.

#我在Gate广场过新年 Why is this cycle so different?
Friends who entered the crypto market in 2017 know that at that time, the entire industry was full of hope and innovative vitality. People firmly believed that these blockchain networks could bring real solutions to the world.
Nine years later, it’s hard to assert that any major crypto ecosystem has truly achieved the sustainable mainstream utility promised back then.
This cycle has harvested countless participants, with most tokens showing almost no performance. More and more people are beginning to see the truth of the market: for the vast majority of crypto assets, it’s essentially a PVP game where participants rely on leverage, liquidations, and capital rotation to profit from others, rather than from the intrinsic value growth of the assets themselves.
Market selection rules have never failed: in the long run, most cryptocurrencies will eventually go to zero. Bitcoin, along with a few high-quality assets in the crypto space, still has a chance to break free from this fate and achieve real value breakthroughs.
Glory or Destruction: The Choice
Path to Glory
Bitcoin achieves a “breakout upgrade”: volatility significantly contracts, retracement levels are far below historical levels, and the previous high region becomes a solid structural support again. Although the cycle peak multiples have shrunk, the stability of the asset has greatly improved, risk-reward ratio is optimized, and it truly becomes a sustainable long-term investment.
Path to Destruction
The four-year cycle framework has completely failed. It’s not that Bitcoin itself is dying, but that the cycle logic maintained for years no longer holds. Volatility remains at historically high levels, but the potential for gains continues to shrink. The previous high no longer provides bottom support, and the growth channels of the past have become relics.
Bitcoin may still experience phased rallies in the future or continue to gain application adoption, but the once-reliable cycle pattern will no longer be the dominant market rule.
The Reset Path
A new demand-driven force emerges strongly, completely breaking the model of diminishing returns, and reshaping Bitcoin’s growth curve. This could come from large-scale structural capital allocation, widespread adoption by sovereign nations, or passive institutional buying forming long-term support.
Additional Hidden Risks: Long-term Protocol Layer Tests
This is not the core factor currently affecting the market, but it’s worth long-term attention: in the long run, Bitcoin must prove it can evolve at the protocol layer, especially with quantum resistance.
The core of the quantum issue concerns the security of Bitcoin ownership and protocol upgrade coordination, not mining itself.
The security of early Bitcoin holdings (like Satoshi’s stash) is the real potential threat.
If Bitcoin hopes to become a long-lasting asset, it must ultimately pass the “protocol upgrade without destroying market trust” test. This is like a background timer; it hasn’t triggered yet but remains an important hidden risk for Bitcoin’s long-term development.
Simple Judgement Criteria
If, after the shakeout, Bitcoin reclaims and stabilizes above $69,000: the cycle structure is preserved, and the path to glory remains highly possible.
If Bitcoin’s price stays between $55,000 and $69,000: the market is under maximum pressure, and the cycle model faces its final test.
If Bitcoin’s price remains below $55,000: under the weak cycle background of 1.8x peak multiples, structural breakdown may occur, and the market pattern is likely to undergo a fundamental shift.
Conclusion
Bitcoin cannot have both characteristics long-term: low-gain assets and high-retracement assets. If risk-adjusted returns still matter, these two cannot coexist permanently.
Currently, Bitcoin approaching $60,000 is a real-time test of this life-and-death boundary. Once the price falls below $50,000, all debates will end, and the market will deliver its final verdict—either moving toward glory or plunging into destruction.