BTC_POWER_LA

Cover calls work really well during bear markets.

The Monte Carlo simulation based on the power law slopes is more conservative than traditional Black-Scholes (the trillion dollar equation).
This is because we consider properly the large tails of the distribution of possible Bitcoin returns.
This is a full backtest on the history of Bitcoin.
Cover calls using this method can give very safe 1% premium a month and 2 % with just a bit more risk.
This is while being fully exposed to long term Bitcoin growth.

Notice how the price wants to move along the power law even after a correction. Corrections are almost vertical and then price moves along a path parallel to the power law.
Bitcoin does mostly power law things.

Price projection for the next 14 days. Yellow curve is the median of all paths == power law.

Bitcoin slopes distribution and projections for next 14 days.

1. The long-run convergence — the gold dashed power law prediction and the teal 4-year median have been converging steadily since 2013 and are now essentially on top of each other at ~38–42%. This is arguably the single most compelling empirical confirmation in the book: the 4-year smoothed return is tracking the theoretical prediction from a mathematical model fitted years earlier.
2. Cycle amplitude decay in CAGR terms — peak 1-year CAGRs fell from 27,628% (2011) → 9,900% (2013) → 1,641% (2017) → 1,002% (2021) → 135% (2025). The oscillations are dampening toward the power law baseline, exact

When you take a long trend look at Bitcoin nothing has changed. Even without a run away top we are averaging returns that are exactly what predicted by the power law. Right now these averaged CAGR is around 40 %. Again do not look at a particular year but averages over an horizon of at least 4 years.

Don't follow Bitcoin analyses from somebody that sold all his Bitcoins.

Buy Bitcoin and be the humans in the car.

The Bitcoin Value Triad.

Metcalfe's Law.

Here is the beginning of my book "The Physics of Bitcoin".
CHAPTER ONE
A Life at the Edge of Order and Chaos
The lecture had been sitting in my browser tab for three days. I kept meaning to watch it, kept getting pulled away by the ordinary business of a scientist's life — data to analyze, papers to review, the endless small fires of academic existence. It was 2012, and I was a neuroscientist at Northwestern University, a long way from the Louisiana college where I had spent seven years teaching physics, and a longer way still from the Italian child who had built his first telescope at the ag