链研社

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Meta's big gamble on AI has been a disaster; the mother of all losses. While investing in GPU computing power at least shows some results, the acquisition of the team cost $16.3 billion, which is about one-third of Meta's annual net profit. So far, no particularly impressive成果 has emerged, and Meta still lags far behind competitors in AI capabilities.
In June 2025, Meta spent $14.3 billion to acquire a 49% stake in Scale AI. Based on the latest 2026 valuation of around $12 billion, this is nearly a 60% decline from when Meta first invested.
With self-evolving agents like openclaw, the reli
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Naval's Latest Podcast: The Only Way to Overcome AI Anxiety Is Action
1. Industry Transformation: The Arrival of the Vibe Coding Era
Naval introduced the concept of Vibe Coding, believing that the paradigm of product development has shifted from logic-driven to intention-driven.
* Natural Language Programming: Tools like Claude Code make natural language the hottest programming language. You just describe your needs, and AI handles end-to-end execution.
* Model Tuning as the New Core: Top programmers' focus is no longer on writing specific instructions but on collecting data and tuning model s
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Alibaba's models are leading, but in AI commercialization, they are far behind competitors. The slogans are there, but very few have actually been implemented, which is the biggest regret. Because Alibaba Cloud's commercialization has been unsuccessful, they blame the Qwen team, a team responsible for large model development, for the commercial results—it's truly absurd.
Let's see how ByteDance is doing; they are the most thoroughly AI-ized in the internet industry:
1. ByteDance's Volcano Engine consistently ranks first domestically in token call volume, far surpassing Alibaba. ByteDance's log
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GPT-5.4 Released, the future direction of AI iteration is clear. The current AI field has evolved from dialog boxes to system intelligent agents, with humans responsible for aesthetics and AI for implementation, moving towards a human-machine collaborative workflow.
➤ Key Upgrades of GPT-5.4
1. Combines the general reasoning capabilities of GPT-5.2 with the top-tier programming skills of GPT-5.3-Codex
2. Supports a 1 million token window (about 5000 pages of documents), solving the pain point of long texts being easily forgotten
3. Native computer operation, allowing the model to directly see
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Anthropic Partner: 80% of AI Companies Will Fail, Only 3 True Moats Remain
1. 80% of AI Companies Will Fail
The AI industry is at a turning point from reckless funding to brutal selection. The so-called "failure" mainly refers to the following three types of companies:
API Wrappers: Companies that only layer a UI on top of OpenAI or Anthropic interfaces, without proprietary technology or unique use cases.
Functional Tools: Solutions that address a small pain point but will soon be overtaken by built-in features of large models (like GPT-5, Claude 4).
Inefficient Competitors: In the same niche
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How does China, with electricity costing only 8 cents per kilowatt-hour, increase prices by 13 times to sell to the United States?
The limit of computing power is electricity. In the global competition of the AI era, China leverages its electricity energy advantage to transition from selling cheap Chinese products to selling computing power.
1. The essence of AI is electricity alchemy
Previously, China turned electricity into aluminum, which only doubled in value. Now, China transforms electricity into Tokens, increasing their value by 13 times.
Basic form: 1 kWh of Chinese electricity
TOKEN-0,84%
BTC3,13%
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Li Xiang: In the AI era, the gap between people will widen to ten thousand times.
The harshest is this sentence: the value created by ordinary people is zero, and they lack any external market competitiveness. In the pre-AI era, mediocre people could still get by. In the AI era, mediocre people can't hide anymore.
Every upgrade of tools is widening the gap between people. The more powerful the tools, the higher the requirements for those who master them, and the greater the energy they can unleash once in control.
AI is just amplifying your inherent abilities. Your judgment, professional depth
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Vibecoding now reminds me of the days when I was controlled by programmers at the company, it was so painful. Everything was not good enough, and ridiculous things like waiting half a year for feature requests kept happening.
If AI had been as good as it is now back then, I wouldn't have been so frustrated that I couldn't sleep at night. In the future, using AI to write code will become a basic skill, just like using Word, Excel, and PowerPoint.
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V Dog: Make sure the dump happens during a bear market. I know you will support my great dream. On one hand, you're also lucky to be able to buy cheap coins.
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Could 2028 be the diamond bottom for BTC?
2026 is undoubtedly the worst start to the year for Bitcoin in nearly a decade.
From the black opening on January 1st to now, BTC has fallen from $109K to $65K, a 24% decline year-to-date. ETH fared even worse, dropping 34%. This is the worst start to the year for BTC since 2016.
But this time is different; this crash has no clear reason.
1. A fall without reason is the deepest fear
In 2018, a 73% drop was due to the ICO bubble burst, with many altcoins going to zero. In 2022, a 77% decline was caused by the Luna collapse, Three Arrows Capital, and FTX
BTC3,13%
ETH2,08%
LUNA-0,01%
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Coca-Cola 5-Year Return Rate 63%(excluding dividends)
Bitcoin 5-Year Return Rate 45.77%
Ethereum 5-Year Return Rate 33.31%
Nasdaq 100 Index 93.75%
BTC3,13%
ETH2,08%
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Who can accurately calculate the gross profit margin of these AI large model companies' coding packages? Anthropic's gross profit is approximately 40%.
Domestic companies like Zhipu and Minimax are open-source models; those with computing power can deploy them themselves. Therefore, it's unlikely that the pricing for coding packages will be too high, and the gross profit margin may be very low or even result in losses. Moreover, the business model of selling APIs differs from SaaS and other internet applications; each token incurs a cost, and there is no near-zero marginal cost.
Zhipu has
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Investing enters a world of extreme compression; the cycle has not disappeared but has been violently folded.
1. Narrative is Justice: Assets are being tokenized
Gold/Silver are no longer just cold metals; they are also narrative tokens for de-dollarization. They complete historically significant market moves in a very short time.
Memory/Hard drives are no longer just hardware for cycles; they are the next generation after AI chips.
The first AI IPO is no longer judged solely by financial reports but replaces SaaS, disrupting traditional business models with a huge market potential.
In the sho
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After updating to the new version of openclaw 2.19, I crashed the gateway. I spent the whole night trying to initialize it without success, but finally I cured my AI anxiety over the past few days.
Actually, most people who are unsure whether openclaw is useful for them can try Youdao Lobster LobsterAI first, which is more suitable for domestic use. It can be configured with Feishu, email, and also comes with commonly used skills that are ready to use out of the box. The only thing left is to configure the API( which only supports domestic models). For long-term use, I recommend purchasing a
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When intelligence reaches a certain level, the importance of affordability becomes evident. Top-tier models are used to solve the most difficult problems, while more common tasks utilize the most cost-effective options. Minimax M2.5 ranks first, twice as good as the second place.
In the top 5 openrouter model calls, China accounts for 4 of them, all open-source models. Top 1, 2, 3, and 5 are all Chinese.
This year is definitely the year for big model companies to monetize. It is expected that many companies will see positive operating cash flow, with real cash inflows.
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Qwen3.5 :Architectural innovation + open source + ultimate cost performance
Seed-2.0 :More like a digital employee, emphasizing workflow and delivery
Kimi K2.5 :More like a research-oriented beast, emphasizing reasoning limits and Agent Swarm
Gemini 3 Pro :Ecosystem and long-term stable state king
GPT-5.3:Pushed programming intelligent agents to the extreme, but at a high cost
Opus-4.6:Precise agent deconstructor + dynamic thinking pioneer
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Duan Yongping 25Q4 Holdings Disclosure: Reduced Apple, Crazy Over Nvidia!
Old Duan's latest report is out, with a huge amount of information:
AI is fully loaded: The most aggressive move this quarter is Nvidia, with shares skyrocketing by 1111%! The additional investment exceeds $1.2 billion. Meanwhile, Microsoft and TSMC are also making large-scale investments. Clearly, Old Duan has shifted from observation to heavy positioning in the AI sector.
Apple remains a true love, but profits have been realized: Apple still accounts for 50.3% of the portfolio, although it was reduced by 7% this quarte
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