Yongle'sJourney

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CPI announced, and currently the data is in line with expectations. Inflation growth pressure has eased in the short term, but key data still remains sticky, and the risk of energy inflation has not yet manifested!
The impact of geopolitical conflicts still exists. Crude oil prices remain high. If the Middle East cannot achieve a ceasefire in the short term and crude oil stays high for a longer period, market concerns about inflation in March and April may continue to grow. Serious inflation worries are bearish for long-term bonds and suppress risk market sentiment.
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Ethereum is currently approaching the 2000 level. In the short term, this range has some support strength. Last night, I shared 2064🈳, currently in the 44-point range. Let's first reduce some positions here and then continue to look for the next target! Defensive move to the mobile version!
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Tonight's release of CPI data is one of the most important short-term market indicators. Currently, the Cleveland Fed and market expectations for February's nominal CPI are 2.4%, which is the same as the previous value, with a month-over-month increase of 0.3%, higher than the previous 0.2%. The core CPI annual rate is 2.5%, with a monthly rate of 0.2%, slightly below the previous figure. However, it is important to note that this data is for February and is unrelated to the current war. Therefore, even if the data isn't high, it shouldn't be simply interpreted as inflation pressures having be
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Recently, there hasn't been much new macro news; it's still a day influenced by geopolitical conflicts. During the day, things looked somewhat positive, with reports that the US and Iran might be considering a ceasefire, and the Strait of Hormuz also saw some staged traffic. But by the evening, the situation continued to escalate. On one hand, there are suspicions that Iran has laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz; on the other hand, reports claimed that the US escorted oil ships through the Strait, but in reality, no escort took place. It's been like this day after day.
The war has been ongoing
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Yesterday, the US stock market opened lower and then rose throughout the day. This week's closing will be a key point for the US stocks, determining whether the market is adjusting to a stable level and entering the late stage of a bull market or breaking below the support band and entering a bear market. Based on the market performance and certain data, this round of rally is caused by short covering accumulated after the recent decline over the past few days, and it has triggered some mechanism-driven chasing strategies. Data shows that open interest is decreasing, which is not due to major
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BTC's current trend still remains above 69,000. After a quick dip to 682,000 in the early morning, it quickly recovered. At present, there is still significant airdrop liquidity clearing above 70,000. The current position is very prone to triggering a false breakout, leading everyone to believe the market is very strong and won't fall. Many go long, causing the market to rise for a while, then suddenly turn downward. This kind of bait-and-switch move is very classic.
So everyone should continue to observe. Even if a breakout is confirmed, it's not too late to go long. The resistance level arou
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Ethereum has recently been volatile, with multiple doji candles on the weekly chart. The overall trend has been oscillating around 2000. Due to external economic factors and Middle East news, although there hasn't been excessive selling in the short term, the market experienced a rebound and correction after a dip in the morning. However, on a smaller time frame, it’s clear that there is still some resistance above 2000. Tonight marks the first M-Share opening under daylight saving time. My personal view remains bearish.
Ethereum: Short at 2012, target 1962. Stop loss 30 points #BTC #ETH
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Wake up and see that the US stock market's S&P night session has plummeted by 2%, continuing the decline from Friday. Over the weekend, geopolitical panic sentiments have been fully unleashed. The substantial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off one-fifth of global oil supply, severing the lifeline of the global energy system, which could trigger a new round of oil crises. On Monday, WTI crude oil futures surged by 20%, the most direct price reaction. Oil prices are also the root of inflation, which will drive the prices of everything else higher. The uncertainty of inflation will furt
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Yesterday, sharing BTC 66,900-67,400 short positions, currently there is at least 1,200 points of room. You can first reduce your positions here and then continue to look at the target levels, moving the stop-loss to protect your principal!#BTC #ETH
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Recent macro impacts: Israel and Iran have just gone to war, and Bitcoin experienced a massive sell-off. Several exchanges dumped nearly $3.5 billion worth of coins. However, overnight, not only was this drop filled, but after the early morning monthly close, Bitcoin briefly broke through the 68,000 level. If the war continues to escalate chaos, crude oil will eventually surge, which could significantly impact U.S. inflation, leading the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy. The market may then reprice accordingly. In the short term, on the hourly chart, the price is once again showing a
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Over the weekend, due to macro news, BTC rebounded but then dropped again, breaking below the 63,000 level. Although the technical trend temporarily shows signs of stabilization, the current market indicates that the bottoming phase has not yet seen increased volume, meaning selling pressure has not been cleared. This results in a weaker rebound and makes me doubt that the second bottom has been completed. Additionally, on the macro front, the resolution of the US-Iran conflict marks an important macro bearish signal. Moving forward, it’s crucial to observe whether the price can find support a
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Geopolitical conflicts trigger market panic, Bitcoin 1-hour sell-off volume surges by $1.8 billion
Monitoring data shows that within one hour of the news of the Iran conflict today, there was a concentrated large-scale sell-off in the market. Bitcoin's selling volume surged sharply, increasing by approximately $1.8 billion in a short period. This clearly reflects that, in the face of sudden geopolitical risks, investors' strong risk-averse and panic-selling emotions dominated short-term market behavior. #BTC #ETH
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As news of the US joint attack on Iran broke,
gold and silver surged straight up, with 15-minute K-lines skyrocketing like they had been injected with adrenaline;
BTC and ETH, on the other hand, experienced a waterfall decline, dropping decisively without hesitation.
In the past, everyone always said that Bitcoin is digital gold and a safe-haven asset,
but when the guns fire, real gold is unafraid of fire, and the outcome is clear.
Damn, this wave shows that missiles arrived before the bulls.
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Middle Eastern geopolitical risks suddenly increase. Currently, Bitcoin's trend has broken below the 65,000 support level, and it continues to decline on the four-hour chart. On the one-hour chart, the MACD indicator's two lines remain below zero and continue to turn downward, with bearish momentum increasing. In the afternoon outlook, it is recommended to maintain a bearish stance.
Short at 64,150, with a target of 62,150 and a stop loss of 1,000 points. #BTC #ETH
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Ethereum's current price has once again fallen below the $2000 level. After opening the morning near 1885 and experiencing some fluctuations and recovery, the one-hour chart shows the price operating below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. The overall trend remains in a weak consolidation phase. Regarding the indicator chart, the three lines of the KDJ are turning downward, and the MACD bullish momentum is decreasing. Trading volume over the weekend has shrunk as usual, and there may not be many rebound opportunities in the short term. In the short-term intraday strategy, it is advisable
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Today is the last day of February, and the monthly close is approaching. Currently, the outlook is not very optimistic. On Friday, both US stocks and BTC declined simultaneously. As has been discussed over the past few days, market sentiment can be driven by earnings reports, but liquidity will not improve because of earnings. Especially with the ongoing trend of institutional fund outflows and overall market selling for four consecutive days, these are all signs of the current market condition. The core narrative remains that of insufficient liquidity; the lack of funds is a key issue. Solvin
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Currently, Bitcoin has failed to stabilize at the 68,000 level. The price has further declined to the middle band support of the Bollinger Bands. Today, the 68,100 short position has successfully secured a 2,000-point profit zone #BTC #ETH
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Ethereum 60 points safely in the bag
#BTC #ETH
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Bitcoin surged to the 70,000 level yesterday early morning but faced resistance and pulled back. In the short-term trend, the pressure around the 70,000 range remains quite strong. Currently, the four-hour chart shows the price around 68,000. This morning, the overall trend is in a rebound phase after the early morning decline. However, on the four-hour timeframe, the indicators have not shown significant bullish volume expansion, with the KDJ three lines continuing to move downward, and the MACD indicator's bullish momentum remaining in a shrinking phase. I expect that if the price cannot sol
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This week's macro recovery rally faced resistance, and Nvidia's earnings report did not reverse the market. Most tech giants still remain weak in pre-market trading! Assuming that the US-Iran geopolitical conflict will not erupt directly and that the latest 15% tariffs are not announced, the market may stay in a cautious and optimistic phase. The January PPI on Friday might provide a short-term boost to the market, but the effect is expected to be limited. Caution is advised for potential volatility and downward risks!
From a technical perspective on Ethereum, during the US trading hours, ETH
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