ZhangShuofeng'sScriptDiary

$BTC Market Analysis 2026.03.19
Let me start with the conclusion: I believe BTC will complete the decline starting from 76000 earliest next week, or at the latest on the weekly K by 3.30. The magnitude of this decline will determine which route it follows as shown in the chart.
Since BTC broke through 74000, I've been consistently pouring cold water on the situation, repeatedly reminding everyone that this is merely a rebound. After the rebound ends, it will continue to decline. Even if the rebound level expands, the first wave of the rebound has already entered its final stage, followed by a

Yesterday's trading targets from my analysis were completed. Bitcoin broke below 71,000, and Ethereum reached a low of 2,150. All short positions that entered were closed with profits. Regardless of how much was gained, the outcome is that everything secured safely. The strategy adjustment was timely, and of course, this wouldn't have been possible without coordination with friends. Moving forward, we'll continue the momentum and strive to multiply the positions several times over for everyone.
Frankly, there's not much additional explanation needed for this market movement. Whether it's techn

The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged, but according to the median of the Fed's dot plot: cumulative rate cuts of 25 basis points are expected in 2026. In other words, there is a high probability of only one rate cut this year. #美联储利率决议 $BTC ‌$ETH ‌

There are 20 minutes left until the Federal Reserve decision is announced, and at 2:30 we'll have to listen to old Powell chattering away. How many people are glued to this time slot? #美联储利率决议 $BTC ‌$ETH ‌

The US classifies BTC, ETH, SOL, ADA, DOT, LINK, DOGE, LTC, XRP, HBAR, and SHIB as "Digital Commodities" (digital commodities), not securities.
The core logic behind this is that the value of these assets derives from the decentralized system's own operation + market supply and demand, rather than relying on team hype, expectation management, or passive dividend rights.
One-sentence summary: Truly decentralized native coins = commodities; centralized tokens backed by narratives/teams will likely be targeted as securities.
This means that in the future, a large number of altcoins and shitcoins

$BTC Market Analysis 2026.03.18
The rally that started from 60k has continued for 39 days. If this rally is a correction against the decline from 97900 to 60k (blue route), then a reversal point must be found this week to turn downward. Otherwise, the rally starting from 60k could be a correction against the entire decline from 126000 to 60k (red route).
Based on our BTC structure analysis, here are two possible routes shown in the chart:
Red: The entire rally from 60k is a three-wave structure, with this week's weekly candle high being the endpoint of the first wave. After the first wave end

Building wealth from small to large depends not on a moment, but on a lifetime!
I've organized some experience accumulated over the years as a reference for friends just getting into the market.
Rule One: Stay calm after major declines.
When prices fall continuously for several days, many people choose to exit due to emotions. Markets often enter a short-term recovery phase at this stage, so rather than rushing to act, it's better to first observe whether the rhythm shows any changes.
Rule Two: Learn to control position size after rallies.
When prices rise continuously, emotions are most easil

Bitcoin I went long from 60000 to 74000 after
12 days have passed
I only missed out on a few hundred points of gains
But you, my friend
For the next half year, all you'll do every day is pray that Bitcoin returns to 7xxxx
Someone will ask
After rallying so much, can it still break below 60000?
My answer is: it absolutely, definitely, certainly can!
Let's wait and see
#比特币站上7.5万美元 $BTC ‌$ETH ‌

Price has rebounded to 74,250. Currently undergoing a pullback retest in the 74,250 to 73,850 range. Although a bearish crossover has formed on the 1-hour timeframe, its signal effectiveness is limited due to weak momentum and distance from the midline. If a clear stabilization signal emerges on the 15-minute cycle, re-entry can be considered. Stability at this level will effectively limit the pullback depth on the 30-minute timeframe. Below, the 73,175 level on the daily chart (EMA52 moving average) can be viewed as a key support level with strong support at this position. #比特币站上7.5万美元 $BTC

FET has been rising 15-20% daily recently, but when I liquidated most of my position near 3.2 in March 2024, I kept a base position of 73,000 coins with a cost of 0.65. That's already very low for 2023-2024, but on October 11th last year, there was a brutal wick that crashed from 0.61 straight down to 0.13 - absolutely shameless. With a cost of 0.65 from two years ago, it didn't show losses even after falling for a year, but I ended up caught in that October 11th crash anyway. So after I break even on this next cycle, I'm done playing these altcoins. At most, I'll just take short to medium-ter

Dropped from 74000 to 65600 in just 4 days
Pulled back from 65600 to 74000 took a grueling 8 days
So you're telling me the bulls won?
Where did the bulls win?
Can you put in more effort and pull back to the January 98000 starting drop point first?
Breaking 60000 is only a matter of time
The market gave bulls more breathing room
But it's merely halftime in a bear market#比特币站上七万美元 $BTC ‌$ETH ‌

Based on today's market conditions, that's really the case.
Today, the victims of Hong Kong stocks and crypto finally hugged each other. #加密市场上涨 $BTC

$BTC Market Analysis 2026.03.16
BTC's rebound from 60k has now lasted 38 days. If this is a rebound against the 97900-60k decline (blue segment in chart), it must end this rebound this week and begin accelerating downward. The next Gann time low point is at the end of March/early April, leaving little time for the decline.
If the following situations occur this week, it will gradually increase the probability of expanding the rebound level to target the 126000-60k decline (red segment in chart):
1. Break above 75600 with 4-hour and daily K closing above it
2. Contact with the first wave decli

Witnessing history once again. The vast strait, and no one dares to cross. #伊朗明确达成停火协议要求