#创作者冲榜 Global Markets in Shock: Gold Plummets 10%, A-Shares and Hong Kong Stocks Crushed, Only Bitcoin Holds Strong
Recently, global financial markets have been thrown into violent turmoil by an unresolved geopolitical conflict. The US-Iran military standoff has persisted for nearly a month without signs of easing. Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has strangled over 20% of global crude oil transportation, sending oil prices soaring and rapidly pushing up inflation expectations. The Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations have completely reversed, with calls for rate hikes reemerging. A chain reaction of panic triggered by energy is sweeping across stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies across all markets.
Gold Collapsed: Worst Decline in 43 Years, Plunged from 1250 yuan/gram to 930 yuan in Over a Month
Most alarming is the collapse-like crash in the precious metals market. Over a month ago, gold was still trading at over 1200 yuan/gram at elevated levels, and today has crashed to over 930 yuan, with a single-day decline approaching 10%. In just one month, it has been halved in a vicious selloff, marking the most severe decline in a single week in nearly 43 years.
The logic behind this is clear and straightforward: oil-exporting countries in the Middle East face blocked crude exports and dried-up fiscal revenues, forcing them to concentrate on selling off high-priced gold for liquidity. Combined with gold's sustained appreciation over recent years and abundant profit-taking positions, as risk events hit, high-priced assets are crashed first, and panic sentiment completely explodes.
Global Stock Markets Bloodbath: Japanese, Korean, A-Shares, and Hong Kong Stocks All Plunge
Panic sentiment spreads from commodities to equities. Asian markets open with collective free falls.
• South Korea's stock market drops over 6% in a single day
• A-shares' Shanghai Composite Index fell over 4% at one point, closing down 3.6%, with over 5100 individual stocks in the red
• Hang Seng Index drops exceed 4%
Markets worry that as crude oil surges above $120/barrel, Asian and Southeast Asian economies heavily dependent on imports will face imported inflation and recession pressures, with capital fleeing at any cost.
Although US stocks showed relative resilience earlier, the three major stock index futures opened lower in advance, with US stocks opening down in sync. Global risk assets still face a new round of sentiment venting.
Bitcoin's Different Story: Already Halved Early, Becomes a "Safe Haven Valley"
In a market of across-the-board crashes, Bitcoin follows an independent rhythm.
Six months ago, Bitcoin had already begun adjusting early, with cumulative declines exceeding 50%, fully releasing risks.
When this round of geopolitical conflict erupted, it did not crash in sync with gold and stocks, merely disrupted by a reversal in its rally momentum.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's monthly line has closed 5 consecutive bearish candles, with March as the 6th month, currently closing bullish and stabilizing.
Historically, Bitcoin has never experienced the extreme pattern of 6 consecutive monthly bearish candles. Continuous declines for a year without rebounds contradicts market logic. Currently, multiple indicators across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes are in the bottom range, with limited downside space remaining.
Chart signals also confirm resilience: after Bitcoin dropped near 60,000 dollars, the frequency of sharp declines diminished notably; altcoins simultaneously stopped falling. When Bitcoin drops 1%-2%, small-cap coins no longer routinely crash 10%-20%. Market selling pressure is nearly exhausted.
Fear Index Hits Bottom: Extreme Fear Reaches Record Levels, Bottom Being Brewed
Market sentiment has plummeted to freezing point: the Fear & Greed Index9 has returned to single digits, entering the extreme fear zone.
This year, markets have experienced extreme fear for 70 days, accounting for 19.18% of the time—roughly one-fifth of the year spent in extreme panic, which is historically extremely rare.
Over the weekend, geopolitical tensions deteriorated further. Panic accumulated during market closure was released concentrated in Asian trading.
Post-Market Outlook: Once conflicts ease, across-the-board recovery will follow.
The market's core contradiction has only one answer: when does the US-Iran conflict end and when will the Strait of Hormuz resume normal shipping? Once both sides reach peace talks and oil transportation returns to normal, falling oil prices and easing inflation pressure will be major positive catalysts for global financial markets and economies. Previously oversold assets will experience rapid recovery.
For Bitcoin, bear markets are never one-way declines. Historically, every major bear market sees 2-3 notable super-correction rebounds with ranges commonly reaching 30%-50%. This round of adjustment is nearing six months with a halved decline. The probability of continued one-way drops through October is extremely low. As Bitcoin's market cap expands and traditional institutional capital continues flowing in, 60,000 dollars likely represents the bottom zone of this bear market.
As long as geopolitical tensions don't deteriorate further, March Bitcoin is expected to hold gains and close with a bullish candle, reclaiming the 70,000 dollar level. Global markets are experiencing a typical risk event impact, with gold and equities suffering high-level corrections while Bitcoin, having adjusted early, actually possesses relative valuation advantages. When panic peaks, it often marks the window for positioning rebounds. Patient waiting for conflict easing will bring market upcycle recovery action.
