DiaryOfAGreatWhiteB

If Iran settles oil tanker transit fees with Bitcoin, it means the real world is beginning to treat BTC as a settlement tool rather than a speculative asset.

From the heatmap, it's clear that capital is concentrating in these areas:
IFO concepts, advertising and entertainment, Base Meme, AVAX ecosystem, Runes inscriptions, modular blockchain, AI Agents, Restaking, Grayscale Trust, gaming concepts.
Each rebound follows a pattern:
First, the sectors rise, then the leading projects, and finally retail investors chase the high.
So for me,
It's not about finding which one will skyrocket suddenly,
But about identifying the sectors most likely to see capital flow back in the next wave.
When the market truly signals a rebound,
I will prioritize selecting f

These two trades, I didn't rely on luck, but on cognition.
Trading at this price.
Not because of boldness, but because of the right position.
Not because of good luck, but because of the right rhythm.
Many people only see the profits but fail to see these three underlying factors:
First, look at the macro
When the People's Bank of China has increased gold holdings for 17 consecutive months, it indicates long-term preparations for de-dollarization.
Gold, crude oil, and cryptocurrencies are essentially part of the same trend: non-sovereign assets are being re-priced.
Second, observe the sentimen

Still continue to buy gold.

Trump issues a final deadline, and market sentiment suddenly tightens. The crypto market leads the rebound, crude oil rapidly surges, gold fluctuates and declines, and U.S. stock futures further decline. Multiple assets show clear divergence, with funds rapidly switching between risk and safe-haven assets.

If BTC drops below $65,000, the cumulative liquidation strength of long positions on major CEXs will reach 600 million.

The non-farm payroll data released at 8:30 PM last night significantly exceeded expectations, with employment remaining exceptionally strong and the unemployment rate also decreasing simultaneously.
The stronger the non-farm data, the more resilient the U.S. economy indicates;
the stronger the economy, the less urgent the need for rate cuts.
Currently, whether in the U.S. stock market or the crypto space, the most relied-upon factor is the expectation of rate cuts.
So the issue isn't with the coins themselves, but with the rising cost of money expectations.
Short-term sentiment is leaning be

The Four-Year Cycle of Bitcoin
Following this pattern is simple—just look at the calendar.
By time, we can see the top dates of each BTC bull market.
December 17, 2017; November 10, 2021; October 7, 2025
The bottom dates of each BTC bear market.
January 14, 2015; December 15, 2018; November 22, 2022
It’s always about 4 years apart, so we define it as a 4-year cycle.
Why is there a cycle like this?
Because Bitcoin is different from traditional assets. Stocks can be issued in additional shares, and money can be overissued—at their core, it’s all controlled by humans who can manag

Is the big one still coming later?

Once cognition is formed, there is almost no marginal cost.
Real economy is earned with life.
Investment is earned with money.

Old Yellow Hair;
US stocks open: Let's start the discussion
US stocks close: Fire away!

He's not saying that Bitcoin is going to crash, but rather: if it drops one more time, that will be the final bottom range of this cycle!

It's not that the market has worsened; it's that the outside world has suddenly become tense, and funds are starting to seek safety.
Trump's speech was very tough on Iran,
and hinted at possible attacks on energy facilities and the Strait of Hormuz.
The market's first reaction: oil supplies might be cut off.
This triggered a chain reaction:
Oil prices surged, gold plummeted, stocks and the crypto market came under pressure.
So, it's not that the crypto market is having issues; it's that macro sentiment has suddenly deteriorated.

It's not that we're about to fall soon; the main players are using sideways trading to deceive you into thinking bearish. Most likely: first scare people, then rally.
And now it's just testing patience. The market is also very simple:
Above 69,300-69,100, there are people desperately selling; below 68,000-67,500, there are people desperately buying. The main players are oscillating in the middle, and many will mistake this for a decline, but it's actually just pretending to be weak to shake out traders.
Strategy:
Below 68,000: buy on dips
Around 69,300: do not chase long positions
If it really

Report on the situation of alts.
The altcoin market capitalization and exchange rate have pulled back for several weeks in a row, and are now approaching previous lows again. Whether the correction will continue this week, I think it will take a month or so to observe.
From the perspective of liquidity:
The delay in the arrival of the altcoin season was largely due to the on-chain market siphoning off too much speculative liquidity, for example, when Pumpfun issued coins, it was very popular and attracted a lot of attention and funds. Now the on-chain activity is not as vibrant, and even Pumpf