EncryptionChapterThree

$430 million—15 minutes before the ceasefire agreement was announced.
This isn’t “suspected.” This is “clear-cut trading.”
Let me walk you through this month’s list—
March 23: a $500 million short position, 15 minutes before Trump announced the delay of strikes on Iran.
April 7: a $950 million short position, a few hours before the ceasefire agreement was made public.
April 17: a $760 million short position, 20 minutes before Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz.
April 22: a $430 million short position, 15 minutes before the ceasefire was extended.
Total for April: about $2.1 billion.
Every time i

Prediction markets are about to transform into exchanges.
Kalshi wants to do crypto trading, and Polymarket plans to launch perpetual futures—Gold, Nvidia, BTC, Apple—where you can take leveraged long and short positions.
Their two companies’ core products were originally “prediction markets”: you bet on whether something will happen, and the odds are set by the market. Now, what they want to do is derivative trading in the traditional sense.
Why the shift?
Because the ceiling for prediction markets is too low.
Betting on “Can Trump win the election?” or “Will the Federal Reserve cut interest

Russia is planning to criminalize unlicensed cryptocurrency transactions, with a maximum sentence of 7 years of forced labor. This move is truly a textbook example of “wanting it both ways.”
On one side, previously cryptocurrency was allowed for international trade settlement; on the other side, now they want to pursue criminal liability for the circulation of cryptocurrencies within the country, with a maximum of 7 years of forced labor.
Is the logic self-consistent?
Yes, because Russia’s attitude has never been “support cryptocurrencies,” but rather “support cryptocurrencies when they’re use

South Korea's National Tax Service is serious this time.
They introduced Chainalysis and TRM Labs for bidding, tracking 70 million types of virtual assets, 45 blockchain networks, and identifying mixers—officially starting in July.
The most intriguing part of this news is this sentence:
"Can track non-custodial wallets like MetaMask, Phantom, and to some extent identify wallet ownership and assets held."
What does that mean?
Chainalysis's tracking logic isn't hacking into your MetaMask, but rather: when you withdraw funds from a CEX to a certain address, your KYC information is linked to that

Do you remember the textbook-style script of RAVE?
Act One: Deposit into CEX to fake a move → Attract short sellers.
Act Two: Withdraw tokens and pump the price → Short squeeze.
Act Three: Price rises from $6 to $10 → Repeat the cycle.
Now, the same address just deposited 20 million RAVE tokens into CEX again 10 minutes ago.
Is this a dump, or a "fake dump"?
I don't know.
This is the cunning of this address — it has already built a "brand." When the market sees "RAVE address deposits again," the first reaction is:
Wait, is this real selling or just a show?
Uncertainty itself is a weapon.
Actu

Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan made a lot of fancy statements at the Web3 Carnival—"a crucial turning point," "heading towards maturity," "game changer."
Translate the politician's rhetoric:
"Crucial turning point" = Last year was also a turning point, the year before too, every year is a turning point.
"Heading towards maturity" = It was indeed immature before, but the phrase "heading towards" is clever because it's always on the way.
"Game changer" = Every time new technology comes out, people say this. AI + Web3 is just the latest combination.
But one thing he’s right about — the i

Hong Kong police disclose an “AI quant guaranteed profit” cryptocurrency scam, victims lose 7.7 million HKD
7.7 million Hong Kong dollars, less than 1 million USD, but it was 17 transfers—cut one time after another.
“AI quantitative trading” “stable high returns”—putting these words together is basically equal to “come and give me money.”
The sophistication of the scam has never been about technical content, but about controlling the pace:
First stage: Fish farming.
Reach out proactively on Telegram, recommending that “AI algorithms” help you manage your trades. A few early small-money trial

$292 million, another nine-figure amount.
Kelp DAO's rsETH cross-chain issue, LayerZero and Unichain all paused, security experts intervened urgently. This process has become so familiar it’s like a template—
Detect anomaly → Pause contract → Joint investigation → Tweet reassurance → Wait for autopsy report.
Ryan Sean Adams said, "Hacker attack frequency has reached an all-time high, AI has given hackers dark superpowers"—the statement is a bit sensational, but not without reason.
AI is indeed changing the landscape of offense and defense:
Offensive side: AI can automatically scan smart contra

The Strait of Hormuz is "fully open," and oil prices have dropped over 9% in a single day.
This is not a normal correction; it’s a systematic elimination of geopolitical risk premiums.
The Strait of Hormuz carries about 20% of the world's oil transportation and is the throat of the Persian Gulf. When the strait is closed, oil prices jump, reflecting market fear of "supply disruptions." Now Iran says it is fully open, and Trump personally confirmed this via tweet—
Oil prices wiped out this week’s gains in a single day, showing how quickly the "risk discount" is disappearing.
Even more significa

The bear market has arrived, and projects are running faster than retail investors.
Mint Blockchain has completely shut down, the Base ecosystem lending protocol Seamless has closed its frontend, and Dmail Network is gradually ceasing operations.
By 2026, the crypto industry will officially enter the "liquidation season."
Each of these projects has its own story of demise, but the cause is the same: they ran out of money.
During the bull market, fundraising is easy, TVL is high, and there are many users, so the team thinks "we can do it." When the bear market hits, TVL evaporates, users leave,

Robert Dunlap, a man from Texas, sold a token called "Meta-1 Coin," claiming it was endorsed by artworks from masters like Picasso, Van Gogh, Dali, and others.
$20 million, nearly 1,000 victims.
Take a closer look at this scam—
Picasso and Van Gogh have been dead for more than half a century. How could their artworks "endorse" a crypto token from the 2020s?
The answer is: you don’t need to. Just stack the words "Picasso," "Van Gogh," and "blockchain" together, and people will believe.
A 23-year prison sentence shows the U.S. justice system’s stance toward this kind of fraud: zero tolerance.
Le

According to a Reuters survey, two-thirds of economists predict that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates to 1% before the end of June.
What does 1% mean?
Japan's benchmark interest rate has risen from negative rates all the way to 1%, meaning the yen is no longer "free money." Once the largest source of funding for global carry trades faces higher costs, positions worth hundreds of billions of dollars will be liquidated.
How exactly does this affect the crypto market?
Low interest rates on the yen → funds borrow yen to buy BTC → BTC rises
Interest rate hikes on the yen → borr

According to a Reuters survey, two-thirds of economists predict that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates to 1% by the end of June.
What does 1% mean?
Japan’s benchmark interest rate has been raised from negative rates all the way to 1%, meaning the yen is no longer “free money.” Once the largest source of funding for global carry trades sees its costs rise, positions worth hundreds of billions of dollars will be closed out—by the hundreds of billions of dollars.
How exactly does this affect the crypto market?
Yen stays at low interest rates → borrow yen to buy BTC → BTC rises
The yen

9 hours, 300 million BLESS tokens transferred out, of which 200 million went directly into CEX, and 50 million cross-chain to BSC to dump. The token price was halved, dropping 55%.
Is there still a need to analyze?
Project team address = team wallet. Transferring into CEX = preparing to sell. Cross-chain to BSC to dump = can't wait anymore, selling on multiple chains simultaneously.
The most ironic thing is, this kind of operation is basically not news in the crypto world. Every few days, project teams dump their tokens, and every time someone shouts "the project team ran away," then the

BTC just fell back below 76,000 yesterday, with funding rates turning fully bearish, and sentiment worsening compared to yesterday.
This is interesting—
Price rises, but positions turn into shorts.
The normal script: break new highs → some shorts stop-loss → price continues to squeeze higher.
Now the script: break 76,000 → fall back → more people add to short positions.
What does this indicate?
The market does not believe 76,000 is the top. It thinks it will fall further.
Funding rates turning negative across the board (usually shorts pay longs, now the opposite) shows that short positions hav

At last, People’s Daily has personally stepped in.
The precision of the call-outs is nothing short of textbook: “Hundredfold Coins,” “Millionaire Earnings Every Month from Coin Trading”—do these sound familiar? This is the everyday “net-casting” content from all kinds of “teachers” and “big Vs” in the crypto world.
The focus isn’t on shouting slogans, but on that line: “driving traffic for black-and-gray industries”—
What does that mean?
You post “contract signal services.”
You post “the wealth-getting code.”
You post “follow along and you’ll surely profit.”
No matter whether you’re truly that

Over the past week, $BASED has experienced a textbook-level bottom reversal: starting from a high of $0.064 on April 6th, it continuously declined to $0.0495, a drop of 23%. Then, after consolidating in the $0.049-$0.055 range for four days, it began a volume breakout on April 12th, breaking through two key resistance levels at $0.060 and $0.066 consecutively, with the highest reaching $0.0739 today, a +49% increase from the low point.
There are several important signals worth noting about this breakout:
① Volume breakout confirms the main force's intention. On the 4-hour chart, a histori

This is no longer "harvesting," it's "driving a harvest machine to plow the fields."
24-hour increase of 241%, the price broke through $10. The entire network experienced a liquidation of 17.67 million in 12 hours, ranking first.
Remember those 30.58 million RAVE tokens? Injected into CEX as a show, making shorts think "whales are about to dump"; then pulled back on-chain while simultaneously pumping, causing a liquidation wave.
And now? After the shorts are liquidated, it continues to rise. Breaking through $10. Who's the next to explode? Those who thought "it's risen too much, it's time to s

The classic “fishing-style” harvesting textbook.
First, deposit into the exchange so it looks like the market maker is unloading, with a clear signal to short. After the short positions are fully built up, withdraw the coins back to the chain at the same time as pushing the price—shorts get strangled in a chain reaction.
To make this scheme work, there are two key points:
First, the liquidity black hole of CEX. Put in 30.58 million coins, and within 24 hours it can attract a large amount of short-selling capital to come in. Small investors only look at the volume, not the intent, thinking, “Th