BIT Research: Multiple signals are strengthening simultaneously. Has the Bitcoin recovery trend already begun?

In the previous two reports, it was suggested that the Bitcoin bear market phase may be nearing its end. Currently, as the price re-establishes itself above key technical levels, multiple indicators such as trend models, the 21-week moving average, and on-chain fund flows are resonating, gradually confirming this judgment. At the same time, the $73,000 level has remained an important watershed since March 2024 and is a critical threshold for whether this trend can confirm a reversal.

From a price structure perspective, Bitcoin has re-entered above the 21-week moving average, which holds key significance within the bull-bear judgment framework. Meanwhile, the monthly RSI and weekly stochastic oscillators are both in the range of historically bottomed-out areas, further reinforcing the view that the market is transitioning from a phase bottom toward a recovery phase. Although macro variables may still cause short-term disturbances, the technical picture is gradually improving, and Bitcoin’s movement is beginning to show structural features shifting from “rebound” to “trend recovery.”

Technical signal resonance: key moving averages and trend models point to a recovery phase

Currently, Bitcoin’s price has re-established above the 21-week moving average, a signal often regarded in history as an important confirmation for entering a new upward cycle. If the weekly close can remain stably above this level, the market is likely to shift from a consolidation recovery phase to a trend-based rally.

Backtesting shows that the 21-week moving average not only effectively identifies trend reversals but has also helped investors avoid significant drawdowns during the 2021/2022 bear markets. In this cycle, if the price stabilizes in the $78,000–$79,000 range, this indicator may once again trigger entry signals.

Meanwhile, the trend model has turned bullish. Considering Bitcoin’s strong trend and high volatility characteristics, and after multiple signals previously fluctuated, this cycle’s trend has stronger continuation conditions. Multiple technical indicators across different timeframes are synchronously strengthening, making the current market environment closer to the critical stage of bottoming out and upward recovery in history.

Fundamental recovery accelerates: multi-channel inflows support market structure improvement

Alongside the technical strengthening, changes in fund flows are further reinforcing this trend. Since April, stablecoins, Bitcoin ETFs, futures leverage, and Strategy buy orders have collectively brought about approximately $18.7 billion in capital inflows, pushing total inflows to their highest since July 2025.

On-chain data also shows that after experiencing an outflow of about $25 billion previously, market funds have begun to recover, with a recovery speed significantly faster than the 2022 cycle. This indicates that the market structure after this correction is rebalancing more rapidly.

Notably, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues to raise funds via the STRC tool and buy Bitcoin. Since the beginning of the year, its total financing has reached about $11 billion, providing stable buying support for the market. As long as the STRC spread remains within a reasonable range, this financing mechanism can sustain operation and continuously convert into new demand. The inflow of funds is no longer reliant on a single channel but is coming from multiple dimensions of improvement, reducing the probability of a sharp decline in Bitcoin again and laying a foundation for subsequent price advances toward the $88,000 target zone.

Overall, Bitcoin is currently in a critical transition from “technical recovery” to “fundamental-driven recovery.” Multiple indicators such as trend models, the 21-week moving average, RSI, and on-chain fund flows are resonating, and historically, such signals often mark a window where the market shifts from a phase rebound to a trend recovery. Meanwhile, the improvement in fund flows is accelerating and becoming more diversified, making the market structure more robust than in previous cycles.

However, macro variables may still cause temporary disturbances, such as uncertainties in Federal Reserve policy paths or changes in the STRC spread, which could influence short-term momentum. Bitcoin is unlikely to experience a rapid one-sided rally; instead, it is more probable to gradually rise amid oscillations. But based on the current technical and fund flow picture, the market direction is clearer than before, and trend recovery is gradually unfolding.

The above views are from BIT on Target. Contact us for the full BIT on Target report.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks; investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading digital assets can involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided herein.