Since our rejection at the HTF resistance zone of 72K-80K, BTC has fallen over 11% and is nearly approaching the recent low of the bear flag formation. As discussed last week, this is very similar to the situation in January, so at least be aware of the possibility of a similar outcome, which would be a breakdown of this channel. The 65K-64K area remains a key support at the lower end of the range, while at the upper end, the 75K mid-term level continues to be a critical resistance for BTC. If BTC revisits this level, it will be the first test of the 3D21EMA since breaking below 90K.

In other words, if BTC experiences another breakdown under the bear flag in the coming weeks, it could start forming some HTF bullish divergences. But just like last time, we will consider the structure rather than divergences alone, assuming these divergences might break because the downward move will be aggressive. In this scenario, as the breakdown completes, our macro thesis will enter its final stage, shifting to the first phase of BTC’s long-term accumulation process. This would mean BTC will eventually enter a bear market accumulation zone after the price-based sell-off is nearly complete.