If a modern war breaks out, which types of cities are relatively safer?

The core logic is quite clear: the more ordinary, marginal, and lacking strategic value a city is, the less likely it is to become a priority target.
In modern warfare (whether high-intensity conventional warfare or conflicts mainly involving precision strikes), whether a city becomes a missile or airstrike target usually depends on its strategic value, which can be roughly assessed based on the following factors:
Main factors influencing the likelihood of being targeted (rough priority)
1. Is it a political center?
Capitals or important administrative centers typically hold high symbolic and actual command significance.
2. Is it a military stronghold?
Including large military districts, important air force bases, naval bases, missile deployment areas, etc.
3. Is it a transportation hub?
Key railway junctions, major ports, international airports, important bridges, or energy pipeline nodes.
4. Is it an industrial core?
Especially military-industrial complexes, energy bases, large heavy industries, or high-tech manufacturing centers.
5. Is it near a combat zone or strategic direction?
Border hotspots, coastal chokepoints, island chain nodes, etc., are more likely to be involved in warfare.
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Characteristics of relatively safer cities
Overall, safer cities usually have the following features:
•Not near the coast or border hotspots
•No significant military deployments
•Not a national financial or industrial center
•Not a nationwide transportation hub
•Lower population density
•Low strategic value, limited gains from strikes
Simply put: places where “strikes are of little significance” tend to be less risky.
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True “safety” also depends on living conditions
Even if not a target, in a long-term war environment, whether a city is livable also depends on:
•Availability of water resources
•Ability to sustain some level of agriculture
•Dependence on external energy or food supplies
•Fragility of infrastructure
Because modern warfare is not only reflected in explosions but also includes chain reactions like supply chain disruptions, energy shortages, and economic stagnation.