A few weeks ago, we looked at BTC's historical performance, specifically observing the patterns formed before and after halving events. These patterns suggest that BTC may continue to decline, and indeed it has. Over the past few years, BTC typically reaches a macro bottom 135 weeks after a halving event. The last halving occurred 96 weeks ago. 135 weeks will be in November 2026.

This is also when we expect the macro bottom to form, not based on historical patterns alone, but based on our macro signals and current trends. While this is not the core of our macro theory, BTC's cycle pattern has always been something we respect and acknowledge, assuming a similar pattern will occur this cycle as well. At that time, the price was $93K, and since then, it has fallen 36%.
Looking ahead, if BTC follows a similar pattern, in the coming weeks, it should enter a bear market accumulation zone, which may align with our long-term accumulation range of $BTC 45K-28K(. As previously suggested, we won't wait for an exact bottom, as the risk of missing out is too high. Instead, we will enter a two-phase accumulation process and significantly increase our positions at the 135-week mark if our buy signals also align.